China-Japan row and Korea

New security order in N-E Asia poses challenge

China and Japan are beginning to show two-track tactics toward their latest territorial row over a group of islands in the East China Sea.

On the one hand, China is taking a hard-line; a flotilla of 16 Chinese surveillance ships on Tuesday entered Japanese territorial waters off the islands, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan. Six of these left the area Wednesday. Japan also sent patrol ships to the disputed area to counter the Chinese move.

On the other, a milieu of dialogue and negotiation is in the offing. Appearing on TV Asahi Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he will send a special envoy to China to reduce the heightened tension between the two countries. In response, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman urged Japan to return to dialogue and negotiation to solve issues related to the islands that are claimed by China and Taiwan but are controlled by Japan.

Analysts say Beijing and Tokyo may seek to mend fences during next week’s annual United Nations summit in New York.

On the surface, Korea has little to do with the bilateral dispute, but it may hold profound implications for Korea. For now, the conflict could affect a negotiation schedule for the trilateral free trade agreement involving Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo.

As the dispute is protracted, however, its fallout would be significant enough to put a strain on Korea. More than anything else, the Korea-Japan confrontation over the easternmost islets of Dokdo could become more intense, as is seen in the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute. Considering that Japan is superior to Korea in almost all elements of national power ― population, territory, economic strength and military might, the island nation will feel tempted to provoke tensions concerning Dokdo, which is controlled by Korea. The outcroppings in the East Sea are called Takeshima in Japan.

Ieodo, a submerged rock some 150 kilometers southwest of Marado, the nation’s southernmost island, could become a source of conflict between Seoul and Beijing because the latter protests the former’s jurisdiction of it. Given the natural resources near the rock and its strategic location, China, based on its increased power, may challenge Seoul’s jurisdiction over the rock anytime soon.

In fact, our security situation has been simple over the past decades ― deterring North Korea’s military threat on the basis of the Korea-U.S. alliance. But the basic framework of order in Northeast Asia has been shaken because of the China-Japan conflict. Against this complicated backdrop, the Korea-U.S. alliance is certainly not a panacea.

As far as the Beijing-Tokyo confrontation is concerned, it’s not too much to say that the United States is on the side of Japan against China, which has emerged as one of the G2 nations. In this regard, China’s future leader Xi Jinping’s recent remarks are quite suggestive: “Japan should rein in its behavior and stop any words and acts that undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.’’

It’s inevitable that Korea, unlike Japan, is in an awkward position as long as there are confrontations between the U.S. and China in East Asia. That’s because we can’t turn our back on China, which has considerable clout over North Korea. As a result, a leader who is better than average in diplomacy must win the December presidential election. <The Korea Times>

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