By Nasir Aijaz
The AsiaN Representative
ISLAMABAD: A new political tsunami is feared to hit Pakistan, as the government has reportedly decided to break the existing four provinces and create twelve new provinces, to strengthen its administrative control.
The proposed plan came to surface a couple of days back when a report by Akhtar Rohela of the Voice of Pakistan, two names that are new to me, became viral on social media.
The report was extremely shocking, as it revealed that a plan for the so-called ‘largest administrative restructuring in Pakistan’s history’ has been prepared, according to which the federal government has made a categorical decision to divide the country into twelve new provinces.
Akhtar Rohela, citing his sources, writes that this step is being taken to counter provincial politics on the basis of ethnicity and language and to make the federation more stable.
When the report went viral on social media, I had doubts on its authenticity, and waited for the federal government to deny it, because abolishing the existing four provinces would be a very big step and its consequences would not favor the current weak civilian government.
The coalition of Pakistan Muslim League (N), Pakistan People’s Party and some smaller political parties in the center, is not strong enough to face any vigorous movement against fragmenting the provinces.
Since the government has not denied the news in the last two days, it is possible that there is some truth in it. But in my view, such news is being circulated by the civil administration and the military, a real powerful force behind it, to gauge public reaction. The government has long used this old tactic to measure public response to any new policy and planning.
Such rumors are also often spread to divert public and opposition political attention away from other important issues.
According to Rohela’s report, the existing provincial setup—Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, will be dissolved and divided into smaller provinces.
Under the plan, Punjab will be divided into four provinces – Central Punjab, North Punjab, South Punjab and the West Punjab.
Similarly, Balochistan will be divided into four provinces – to be named as the Coastal Balochistan, Central Balochistan, North Balochistan and East Balochistan.
The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be divided into two parts: to be called Khyber-North and Khyber-South.
Sindh province has been planned to be divided into two parts: Sindh Urban and Sindh Rural. The urban Sindh province’s headquarters will be in Karachi.
Rohela further writes that in three months a constitutional bill and provincial boundaries will be prepared. It would take six months to secure a two-thirds majority in the national and provincial assemblies, while appointing an interim governor, secretary, and IG Police would take four months, and set new delimitations and holding elections would be scheduled for six to eight months.
A two- to three-year period would be required for establishing a permanent provincial capital and secretariat.
The report also contains ‘Potential Reaction’. The planners’ think that there will be a wave of happiness among the urban populations and caution among rural populations.
Meanwhile, federal political parties will be in a race to take credit, and there is a possibility of protests by nationalist parties. The planners believe that global media will declare the plan the largest administrative record in Pakistan.
This is the gist of the viral news. Now, let me briefly recall the statements issued by certain leaders of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), an ethnic party of Indian refugees.
They, in their statements that have been circulating for some time, confidently spoke of Sindh’s partition and that ‘the phase of implementation would begin soon’. Such statements now make me believe that the Military Establishment is behind this plan.
The ethnic groups of Indian refugees had been advocating for bifurcation of Sindh and creating a Muhajir Suba (A province of refugees or migrants).
As these Muhajirs are settled mostly in urban areas of Sindh, the ending portion of the news indicates that ‘urban areas’ people will be happy. This clearly signals that the entire conspiracy aims to partition Sindh fundamentally, because the urban-rural dichotomy has emerged only in Sindh.
In my view, the scriptwriters of the plan believe that dividing Punjab into four provinces will make no difference. Although there is a demand for a Saraiki province in Punjab, the Saraiki movement there is not very strong.
Secondly, by splitting Saraiki-speaking areas into two provinces in one go, they are also pleasing some Saraiki interests. Even if Punjab will be divided into four provinces, the Elite class of Punjab, who enjoys power today, will still be the one controlling affairs.
The demand to divide Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into two provinces has also long been present. Specifically, the Hazara region, historically distinct in identity, should deserve its own separate province. The question remains whether there will be any objections raised to the new delimitation of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or not.
There has not been much reaction yet to the reported proposal to divide Balochistan into four provinces. It remains to be seen what reaction the tribal chiefs and landlords of Balochistan, i.e., the Baloch and Pashtun tribal chiefs and nationalist factions, will show.
Now to Sindh.
Historically, Sindh was a separate country, but due to the interests or folly of the Sindhi leaders at the time of creation of Pakistan, it lost its status and accepted the status of a province in the new country.
Even the provincial status of Sindh was not accepted by the Pakistani rulers, and the One Unit project was imposed merging all the provinces into one named as West Pakistan in the mid-1950s. It was only after a long struggle that One Unit ended and four provinces were restored in 1970.
Now a new era of testing Sindh is about to begin. Earlier, One Unit erased Sindh’s identity, and now it is being attacked on its existence by dividing it. According to Rohela’s report, “experts say that administratively dividing provinces will enable fair distribution of development funds, faster governance, and coordination with the center,” but in truth this plan will weaken Pakistan’s backbone. The writers of the script believe that the experiments of dividing states have succeeded in countries like India, Nigeria, and Ethiopia, but they must remember that the partition of Sindh would be a matter of life and death for the Sindhis, the indigenous people of Sindh.
While drafting this analysis, my attention turned to a brief remark by the renowned economist Qaiser Bengali, who clearly stated to the rulers that “creating a province of Karachi is tantamount to birthing another Israel.”
His remark also made me think over American interest and involvement in the region. It has not been long since Pakistan and the United States formed some arrangements. It is possible that this part of the plan may align with those, as well.
