[India Report] No imminent fear of El Nino In India: Met Office

(Photo : NDTV)

This year, the below average rate of rainfall has created a fear of El Nino over the monsoon in India. But the Meteorological Department in New Delhi has denied any chance at this moment but left a provision that it might occur after mid-August.

El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The Southern Oscillation refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (warming and cooling known as El Nino and La Nina respectively). The extremes of this climate pattern’s oscillations, El Nino and La Nina, cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. Nino is called as “the little boy” and refers to the ‘Christ child’, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas.

el nino effect in india (Photo : REDIFF BUSINESS)

On one hand the state of Assam is washed away due to heavy rainfall in the month of June, the rest of the country is suffering water shortage. The monsoon rains have been 23 percent below average since the season began on June 1. There had been fears that it could cause another drought this summer, and this raised a chance of this monsoon to be hit by El Nino. El Nino caused a drought in India in 2009, and turned that summer into the driest season in almost four decades.As India is such a country whose economy is hugely based on the agriculture, good monsoon rains are crucial for farmers here.

India is one of the world’s biggest producers of rice, sugar and grains. Hundreds of millions of Indians depend on agriculture for their livelihood. So the shortage of rainfall is kind-of a disaster to the agriculture along with the economy of India.Indian farmers consider the month of July as the key planting month and because nearly half of Indian farmland is rain-fed, they complete most of their summer crops within the mid of August.

The 1997 El Niño observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North America indicate the pool of warm water (Photo : WIKIPEDIA)

Though the monsoon rain is reported to be below average till now, Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said about the improvement in the last 10 days, speeding up sowing of major summer crops such as rice and cotton, according to a reputed news media of India. LS Rathore, chief at the India Meteorological Department said the monsoon rains have improved and are likely to cover the entire country on Wednesday, but added they are likely to remain below average until next week. But he also added that, the weather pattern of El Nino is likely to develop only from mid-August.

Country like India, where agriculture is one of the strongest pillars of economy, shortage in rain is undoubtedly a cause to worry. So, it is a relief to farmers that even if there is a chance that El Nino may affect the monsoon but it is not knocking at the door, hence they will get a chance to do with their works if they speed up.

Sudhanya Ghosh Intern Reporter news@theasian.asia