North Korea’s meddling faces constraints

North Korea’s ability to interfere in the South’s elections could be waning despite a recent media blitz targeting conservative lawmakers, analysts said Tuesday.

In its latest attempt, Pyongyang threatened Monday to expose remarks made by Reps. Park Geun-hye and Chung Mong-joon and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo during respective visits to the Stalinist state, saying they had made “pro-North” remarks.

The approach could face challenges as people in the South have grown accustomed to Pyongyang’s provocative ways and remained focused on economic affairs.

“Given the political atmosphere in South Korea, such efforts have a low chance for success,” said Bong Young-shik, senior researcher with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, whose honorary chair is Chung.

“Interference in domestic politics, violation of sovereignty ­ these are things North Korea has been expounding as sacred. They are betraying their own principle and it rubs South Koreans the wrong way.”

The move aimed to deflect criticism leveled at lawmakers of the United Progressive Party (UPP), who are being pressured to step down over alleged links to Pyongyang. It also fell in line with the North’s traditional efforts to sway public opinion toward engagement-oriented candidates.

Bong added that in the wake of the UPP scandal, it has become a political liability for liberal lawmakers pushing for engagement to cite comments from Pyongyang, for fear of being cast as too sympathetic.

The North has long sought to drive a wedge between progressives who support engagement and conservatives with a harder line towards Pyongyang, especially during election season. The number of attacks against the ruling party has jumped in the latter half of the term of President Lee Myung-bak, with which it holds bitter ties.

The disparagement has continued under the rule of new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who was handed power following the death of his father Kim Jong-il in December. Pyongyang pledged in its New Year’s editorial that it would “bring the Lee Myung-bak administration to justice.”

Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute said South Koreans are more confident of their security despite two deadly attacks in 2010, and that “psychological campaigns” had less impact.

“The North will try to consolidate the support of its sympathizers in the South. But beyond that, provocative acts will have a negative impact here,” he said.

Election watchers note that North Korea issues remain a relatively low priority, with job creation and the economy still at the top of their minds.

Historically, both sides have used inter-Korean tensions to sway sentiment. In the South, the announcement of an inter-Korean summit in 2000 and an exchange of fire at the heavily-fortified demilitarized zone were seen as election tactics.

Bong suggests the more-of-the-same strategy reflects on the state of affairs in Pyongyang.

“It shows the Kim Jong-un regime is in autopilot mode and hasn’t demonstrated that it has consolidated the internal power structure to attain a new long-term strategic vision,” he said. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>

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