Allies stuck in 6-party deja vu

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo renewed their sticks-and-carrots approach to North Korea, Monday, amid tensions following a failed long-range rocket launch. But despite the diplomacy, huge doubts loom over the ability of the region to cope with Pyongyang.

Officials of the three nations, following trilateral talks in Seoul, laid out their stance that the North will face increased sanctions and isolation if it continues to provoke; but that better relations await if it takes steps to roll back its nuclear program — essentially the same tack it took before the launch.

The international community is on the lookout for further provocations including a possible third nuclear test as analysts say North Korea needs to bolster military support for its new leader Kim Jong-un and save face after the failed April 13 launch.

After the meeting, Glyn Davies, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea, said the top priority was ensuring a unified response to further provocations among the allies as well as China and Russia, which along with Pyongyang comprise the stalled six-party denuclearization talks.

“It is very important that North Korea not miscalculate again in engaging in any future provocations,” Davies said after meeting with his respective Seoul and Tokyo counterparts Lim Sung-nam and Shinsuke Sugiyama. “We are united in our resolve to respond —not just the three allies but Russia and China as well if there are additional provocations.

“We expect and hope North Korea will make a different set of decisions, will cease diverting its resources to its nuclear and missile programs and instead open up to the outside world.”

But while promising a “swift and sure” response to a nuclear test, Davies did not elaborate on what Pyongyang has to gain by better behavior, only to say a “great deal” of discussion had been held on “alternative futures for North Korea.”

“The engagement aspect remains open if they make the right choice,” he said.

Analysts say the region remains in a pickle as Pyongyang seems intent on keeping what it refers to as its nuclear deterrent; and that talks with the North — unappetizing as they may be — are likely to be the only way to mitigate its misbehavior.

The three countries have bolstered cooperation in the region since the North waged two deadly attacks on the South in 2010 and revealed its uranium enrichment program.

On Saturday, the Group of Eight world leaders warned Pyongyang it faces further sanctions if it continues to provoke.

Recent satellite imagery shows some preparations being made for what could be a nuclear test. Reports say Beijing is leaning heavily on Pyongyang not to follow through, fearing conflagrated tensions and border instability.

Images also show that construction has resumed on the North’s light-water reactor project at its main Yongbyon Plant, further fueling speculation that the regime is intent on keeping its nuclear program.

In February, Davies was involved in a U.S.-North deal under which Pyongyang agreed to shut down its uranium enrichment program at Yongbyon and other steps in exchange for food aid.

The deal paved the way back to stalled six-party talks on the North’s nuclear program, seen as the best forum to slow its growth and deter provocations.

Experts say the Barack Obama administration viewed it as a test of North Korean intentions under new leader Kim. However, Pyongyang broke the deal weeks later with the launch, bringing the appetite in Washington for engaging the regime to a low point.

Davies will arrive tomorrow in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei amid reports that China is exerting pressure on its ally not to follow its rocket launch with a nuclear test.

Tensions have been high since the launch, which was seen as a ballistic missile test and earned the North a U.N. Security Council presidential statement that expanded sanctions on the cash-strapped country.

In 2006 and 2009, Pyongyang followed a U.N. censure for its rocket launches with nuclear tests.

The rocket, meant to put a satellite into orbit, broke into pieces shortly after liftoff. <Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>

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