Seoul-Tokyo ties under pressure

Seoul-Tokyo relations will be further tested under Japan’s next administration following a landslide victory by that nation’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Sunday after three years in opposition.

In the past, the LDP sounded a nationalist note that rubbed Koreans the wrong way, when it pledged to revise its war-renouncing Constitution; address arguments against wartime sexual slavery issue and establish “Takeshima Day” to assert its claim over Korea’s easternmost Dokdo Islets.

Bilateral ties recently plunged to a new low following President Lee Myung-bak’s unprecedented visit to Dokdo in August. It prompted LDP lawmakers to take a tougher, nationalistic stance on diplomatic issues.

Despite the concerns, government officials and experts say Seoul-Tokyo relations are not likely to quickly deteriorate because Japan’s new leadership is facing several challenges.

“Election pledges and actual policy are not necessarily the same,” said a government official on condition of anonymity. “After taking power, the LDP cannot but think of relations with surrounding nations.”

“With the launch of a new administration, it is rare for nations to damage relationships with other nations,” said Lee Rhee-beom, a professor at Gangneung-Wonju National University. “More importantly, Japan’s new government led by Shinzo Abe will have to prepare for the upcoming upper house election in July 2013. This will hold the Abe administration back from adopting far-right policies.”

Abe, after serving as prime minister for less than a year, resigned in Sept. 2007, taking full responsibility for his party’s election defeat later that year.

“Abe previously experienced a bitter defeat after pushing for policies that were against the voice of the majority,” said Lee. “Korea-Japan relations will not worsen because the new Japanese administration is less likely to push for right-leaning party platforms at least until the July election.”

Exit polls conducted by the Japanese media suggest that the majority of voters picked economic issues, including plans to raise taxes and other measures to bolster Japan’s underperforming economy, as their top concerns when voting. Only around 10 percent chose national security issues as their main concern.

With a record low turnout rate of 59 percent _ and many voters complaining of no real choice _ Abe himself also acknowledged that the result was not a real endorsement of his party’s policies.

“The victory doesn’t mean that the confidence in the LDP has been fully restored,” Abe said after his party’s victory. “I think the result means a ‘no’ to the political confusion of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). People will be closely watching to see if the LDP will live up to expectations.”

Abe, the current leader of the LDP, is likely to become the next prime minster end of this month.

“Abe, at this moment, will focus on reviving Japan’s economy by increasing public spending and pushing the central bank to lower interest rates to break Japan out of a deflationary trap,” Lee said.

The LDP’s precarious majority status in the lower house is also a matter of concern.

The LDP’s ally, the New Komeito Party, which opposes far-right policies, won 31 seats in the 480-seat lower house. The LDP, which won 294 seats, needs support from the minor party to surpass the two-third majority needed to overrule the upper house in passing bills. The DPJ currently holds a majority in the upper house.

“Under such circumstances, it is up to how the new Seoul government approaches Tokyo in deciding whether relations can be improved,” said a government official. <The Korea Times/Chung Min-uck>