Allies may sanction N. Korea

North Korea notified nearby countries and an international agency of the trajectory of its planned long-range rocket launch this month, Tuesday, as South Korea sought consultations on how best to handle its neighbor’s actions.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) said that Pyongyang stated that the launch slated from Dec. 10 to 22 would occur between 7 a.m. and noon in informing the U.N. agency about the flight path.

The North says its three-stage Unha-3 rocket is designed to put a satellite into orbit but Seoul, Washington and many other countries see the launch as a test of ballistic missile technology that breaches U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Pyongyang said the first stage of the rocket is expected to fall into the West Sea, some 140 kilometers west of Buan, North Jeolla Province and the second some 136 km east of the Philippines.

The North has already prepared the first stage of the rocket at a launch site in its northwest region.

Seoul’s Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs said Japan, China and the Philippines had been notified of the flight path.

It is the second time this year for the Kim Jong-un regime to put the region on edge with an attempt to put a satellite into orbit. The previous launch on April 13 was condemned by the UNSC in a presidential statement.

On Tuesday, Seoul’s chief nuclear negotiator headed to Washington saying the allies would discuss how to “maximize diplomatic efforts…to block” the launch. President Lee has called for a calm but stern response, while leading presidential candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in have urged Pyongyang to halt it actions.

Lim is expected to meet with Glyn Davies, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea policy and Robert Einhorn, a U.S. special advisor on nonproliferation and arms control. Consultations are also underway with regional players China, Russia and Japan.

Seoul has pledged to push for stricter penalties against Pyongyang if it follows through on the launch, though it remains to be seen if China, its main ally, would support such a move. One official floated the idea of new financial sanctions similar to those imposed in 2005 that froze the North’s accounts in a bank in Macao, the Banco Delta Asia.

Many doubt that Pyongyang will scrap the plan, however, citing its need to glorify young leader Kim Jong-un who took over after his later father Kim Jong-il’s death on Dec. 17, 2011.

During the previous launch in April, the 90-ton rocket exploded shortly after liftoff, crashing into waters off the western South Korean coast. The Unha-3 rocket is a three-stage vehicle some 30 meters long.

However, the launch is seen as a risky move because it would strain relations at a time of regional flux as Seoul and Japan prepare for elections and China transitions leadership to Xi Jinping.

Pyongyang “must be concerned about the loss to its credibility domestically if this second attempt at a launch were to fail again,” Council on Foreign Relations analyst Scott Snyder said in a blog. “Furthermore, regardless of the launch outcome, any attempt will create new obstacles to the country’s foreign relations, aid negotiations, and attempts to attract investment.”

Analysts are also concerned over possible tension-raising scenarios such as the rocket going off course and debris falling onto South Korean territory. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>