Armenian-Turkish reconciliation not in Russia’s interests

Gevorg Petrosyan, Expert on Turkish Studies

Armenian-Turkish reconciliation is not in Russia’s regional interests, expert in Turkic studies Gevorg Petrosyan told Tert.am as he commented on an article in the Russia-based Izvestia newspaper claiming that, along with Russia-Turkey reconciliation, Russia plans Armenia-Turkey reconciliation, including re-opening of borders, Tert.am reports.

Moscow insists that the South Caucasus is part of its political interests, so it cannot take such a step.

“Indeed, Russia’s presence is more tangible here than Turkey’s aspirations to expand its influence over the region. Of course Russia has problems with one of the regional countries, Georgia. On the other hand, Turkey has diplomatic problems and closed borders with Armenia, which is a serious obstacle to Ankara’s plans to expand its strategic and economic influence over the region,” Mr Petrosyan said.

Despite unique relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey, but, being well aware of Russia’s significant presence in the region, Baku is seeking balanced ties with Moscow as well. Russia does not need Armenia-Turkey reconciliation for simple reason that Turkey, which remains Russia’s strategic rival, could beef up its presence and influence in the South Caucasus, the expert said.

Moscow could view Armenia-Turkey reconciliation as official Yerevan’s attempt to change its foreign policy and act more freely.

“Azerbaijan is another important factor. Turkey’s foreign policy is undergoing ‘post-Davutoglu’ changes, seeking to avoid new problems and steps toward reconciliation with the regional neighbors. In this case, Armenia-Turkey reconciliation could mean a serious clash with Azerbaijan, and official Ankara will spare no efforts to avoid it now. Given Azerbaijan’s recent actions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Turkey’s steps toward Armenia could evoke a harsher reaction in Azerbaijan.

“In any case, I think that the logic of Turkey’s changing foreign policy shows that Ankara will try to be more active in the South Caucasus, but it will have to be careful to avoid opposition on the part of Russia and Azerbaijan,”

As regards reports in Russian media, Mr Petrosyan said that it is a step to probe into public sentiments or a superficial approach to the region and regional political developments.

“As I have said, at least Russia is unlikely to move toward to Armenia-Turkey reconciliation as it is against Russia’s interests. Moreover, Russian-Turkish relations have numerous more urgent problems.”