Marshal Kim Jong-un, what if he dies?

Kim Jong-un talks in front of his military aides and other high-ranking officials, including his Jang Song-thaek who was executed last December / YONHAP PHOTO

Marshal Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, in person was last seen in public on 3^rd September attending a concert of his favourite girl group, the Moranbong ensemble, together with his beautiful wife. Since then, he has not been seen in public and North Korean media has not reported on any of his ongoing activities. Tellingly, Kim Jong Un was even absent from the recent session of the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s rubberstamp parliament. Additionally, North Korean TV showed archive footage in which the supreme leader clearly has some difficulties walking.

Thus, there is little doubt that something has gone wrong with Kim Jong Un, in spite of him being one of the world’s youngest leaders.

Let’s be clear from the outset: in all probability, nothing serious is afoot. People do fall sick from time to time and I am pretty sure that most readers have been bedridden for a week or two at least once in their lives. Kim Jong Un is young, and it is likely that we will soon see his smiling face and peculiar hairdo on TV screens again.

But what if things are indeed serious? This may seem improbable, most leaders do not die at such a young age in this world, but what if such a fate is to befall Kim Jong Un now (or sometime soon)? Perhaps, it makes some sense to discuss such an eventuality, with the proviso that we are talking about a low probability event: akin to a large asteroid hitting a major city in the next few years (by the way, think of Chelyabinsk, a large Russian city that was hit by an asteroid last year).

To start with, North Korea is a monarchy, though this fact has never been officially admitted. There is an assumption that this country has to be run by members of the ‘Paekdu Mountain bloodline’, as Kim Il Sung’s blood relatives and their direct descendants are frequently styled. Like it or not, but it seems for many North Koreans that Kim family blood is a precondition for a legitimate ruler. While it may seem strange, such systems are far from unusual: after all, for nearly the entirety of human history, almost all societies maintained systems in which political power was inherited.

Right now, there seem to be few candidates in the Paekdu bloodline to choose from. The older generation, including the surviving half-brother of the late Kim Jong Il probably does not really count these days. But what about younger people?

Apart from Kim Jong Un, Kim Jong Il had two other sons and a daughter.

Kim Jong Nam, the oldest son of Kim Jong Il, has lived overseas, in Makao and China, for some fifteen years. According to persistent rumours, relations between him and his (half) siblings, including Kim Jong Un, are remarkably tense. This is a predictable result of old-fashioned harem politics, since Kim Jong Nam was born to a different woman than that of his other siblings.

Kim Jong Nam has shown himself to be a maverick Kim. He has been willing to talk to foreign journalists and has made remarkably frank observations about the country of his birth. At the same time, he is often seen a potential favourite of China. The Chinese authorities have been controlling and protecting him for at least a decade.

Kim Jong Nam has the advantage of being the oldest, smartest (presumably), and best known young member of the Kim family. His Chinese connections are both an advantage and disadvantage – depending on how the North Korean elite sees China. Admittedly, his age and character may also not work in his favour. Most probably, in the event of his younger brother suddenly dying, power will initially pass to a group of top party officials and military generals. The latter will probably be inclined to install a weak and non-threatening leader as a figurehead.

Little can be said about the two other younger Kims, Kim Jong Chul (Kim Jong Un’s older brother) and Kim Yo Jong (Kim Jong Un’s sister). Kim Jong Chul has a reputation for admiring foreign music in foreign trips in cognito. However, he has never been mentioned in the North Korean media, and his sudden appearance will be strange even for North Koreans – who are used to sudden and unexplainable changes at the top.

Kim Yo Jong has at least been shown by North Korean media on a number of occasions. Reputedly, she works at the Central Committee. She still has the disadvantage of being young. She is also a woman, and this is likely to be a disadvantage when dealing with both the North Korean elite and general public.

One should also mention the possibility of Ri Sol Ju (Kim Jong Un’s publically prominent wife) being chosen sit at the apex of the North Korean bureaucracy. While not impossible, such a turn of events looks unlikely because she has always been positioned as ‘a good wife and caring mother’, not as a political leader of any kind.

On the other hand, one cannot completely rule out that the top military brass and/or party cadres will decide to go forward without a Kim or Kim-affiliate at the top. They may thus decide to follow a communist tradition and appoint one of their number to run the country. Collective leadership can be troublesome, leading to quarrels at the top and even strife among political magnates. Nonetheless, it is not impossible that one of the elite will manage to purge all their rivals and become the new absolute leader in Pyongyang.

However, it seems most likely that should the current Kim die in office, this merely speed up the decline and fall of the North Korean government. Fortunately or not, though, these are speculations: in all probability, Kim Jong Un will surface again soon.