President high popularity may affect local elections

Will President Park Geun-hye’s popularity help the governing Saenuri Party win the upcoming June 4 local elections for representatives of municipal governments and legislatures?

A majority of experts agree that it will but they are split over the extent of influence.

“Experiences tell us that local elections are always a kind of mid-term test for sitting administrations. In this sense, Park’s sky-high approval ratings would be a boon for Saenuri Party candidates,” said political commentator Kim Jong-bae.

“In particular, we lack regional agendas in local elections because affairs of the central government are usually more significant. The Saenuri Party will benefit greatly from Park’s popularity.”

Since her inauguration in early 2013, President Park has enjoyed approval ratings higher than 50 percent in most surveys and above 60 percent in recent months.

Hong Hyung-sik, head of Hangil Research and Consulting in Seoul, concurred but he said that the ruling party may not be able to score landslide victories despite people’s supports of Park’s work.

“Saenuri Party candidates should have done much better by now in consideration of Park’s popularity. But they failed to do so and their prospects in the future are not so bright, either,” Hong said.

“The reason is that the party does not pick the best talent for the elections. Most candidates appear not to know what to do in elections. They just sell President Park and that’s it.”

In most local elections, governing parties suffer devastating defeats if their presidents have low popularity ratings. The sole exception of former President Kim Dae-jung.

In 1998, Kim’s party earned victories because his approval rating was higher than 50 percent just months after his inauguration.

Lee Taek-soo, chief of major local pollster RealMeter, argued that some opposition candidates have early leads because they are incumbents including Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon.

“There are some premiums for incumbent mayors and regional assemblymen. They tend to run ahead at the beginning of the campaigns but they have to struggle to maintain their lead,” Lee said.

“Because a vast majority of people positively evaluate Park, this will assist Saenuri Party candidates. It remains to be seen whether the opposition hopefuls will remain ahead of the pack to the last minute. From my perspective, I’m negative.”

Of note is that the New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) has recently opted to walk away from its flagship pledge of not nominating candidates in the forthcoming elections, according to the above-mentioned pundits.

By reneging on the no-nomination promise, the main opposition party is expected to have level ground with the Saenuri Party, which also broke the same pledge. By Kim Tae-gyu The korea times