Park the Peacemaker

It was 99 years ago when Europe, at the height of its prosperity and global influence, suddenly plunged into a calamitous conflict. There were many reasons for the outbreak of World War I, although the main cause was that the rise of Germany posed a challenge to the traditional European powers of Great Britain, France and Russia. Nonetheless, the war was avoidable if cooler heads had prevailed following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary, an event whose only importance laid in the fact that it provided a pretext for the declaration of hostilities that caught many by surprise.

Could something similar be happening now in Northeast Asia? The risks of a war between China and Japan are rising over their territorial dispute concerning the five islets in the East China Sea known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyus in China. The issue itself is minor, but it reflects growing tensions between a rising China and a declining Japan. Such a transition in regional power relationships is often a recipe for war. What is particularly frightening is that an armed conflict between China and Japan would suck in the U.S. since it is obliged to come to Japan’s aid if it is attacked. A regional war could easily turn into a global one and destroy Asia’s hopes of becoming the global leader of the 21st century.

Such a conflict would obviously have a profound impact on Korea. It is likely that a war between China and a Japanese-American alliance would drag in South Korea, because of the presence of the U.S, military on its soil. An attack on South Korea by North Korea allied with China is not inconceivable.

Consequently, South Korea needs to play a crucial role to prevent such a devastating event from ever occurring. And it is in a unique position to do so since it is only power in Northeast Asia that has good relations with both China and the U.S. President-elect Park Geun-hye may soon discover that her biggest challenge ― and opportunity ― is to serve as the region’s mediator and peacemaker. Her long experience and her ability to speak both Chinese and English make her an ideal figure in carrying out this task.

Ms. Park has already recognized the need to improve Seoul’s relations with Beijing, which stagnated under President Lee Myung-bak. It was noteworthy that the first special envoy she sent abroad during the transition period was to China, not the U.S. This reflects the strong trade links between the two countries, with the total bilateral trade amounting to $220 billion in 2011.

But the progress in Seoul-Beijing ties will depend partly on China’s responses to North Korea’s provocative acts, including the recent launch of a ballistic missile and a new threatened nuclear test. Does China want to alienate North Korea by applying pressure to curb its hostile activities if it also sees Pyongyang as a useful ally in a possible showdown with Japan and the U.S.?

The signs are encouraging that China and its new leadership may be more willing to confront North Korea. Last week, China voted in favor of a new sanctions resolution in the U.N. Security Council that condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile test in December and strengthened existing sanctions. It was Beijing’s strongest response to a North Korea provocation to date.

The Chinese vote represents a shift in attitudes by accepting the need that more coercion may be needed to stop nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula, while acknowledging the idea that targeted sanctions outweigh the possibility of destabilizing the Pyongyang government.

But China is also leery about the recent U.S. go-ahead for South Korea to develop mid-range missile capabilities that potentially could be used to reach targets in China as well as North Korea.

Ms. Park needs to reassure Beijing that the South Korea’s military alliance with the U.S. is not part of a containment policy against China. It was similar fears of containment that led Imperial Germany to confront its neighbors in the lead-up to World War I.

South Korea seeking a more balanced approach toward China could be interpreted in Washington as weakening its alliance with the U.S. It is up to the Park administration to declare that a strong relationship with both China and the U.S. is in their interests since it would strengthen Seoul’s potential role as a regional mediator.

South Korea also needs to repair relations with Japan if it is to become a successful interlocutor in regional dialogue. This may be hard to do in the face of the current nationalist government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But Seoul needs to refrain from engaging in emotional disputes with Tokyo over Dokdo Islets and compensation for the “comfort women” and place these issues on the back burner in the name of helping preserve peace in East Asia.

John Burton, a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Seoul-based independent journalist and media consultant. He can be reached at johnburtonft@yahoo.com. <The Korea Times/John Burton>