Can Kerry ease US-North tensions?

John Kerry Nominee for U.S. Secretary of State

The plot has thickened in Northeast Asia with U.S. President Barack Obama’s nomination of Senator John Kerry for Secretary of State, as the seasoned foreign affairs veteran has been outspoken on the need to engage the recalcitrant North Korean regime.

Analysts point out that Kerry will have a laundry list of more pressing items to tackle if he is confirmed by the Senate, from unrest in Syria to concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. But they also note that the Massachusetts liberal has sharply differed with the administration when it comes to the nuclear-armed North.

In this respect, the nomination may fall in line with the “team of rivals” approach to Cabinet appointments espoused by the American president. In 2011, following two deadly attacks on the South the previous year, Kerry called out the Obama administration for its inaction, saying Obama’s “strategic patience” on Pyongyang was “inadequate” and advocating direct diplomacy.

The nomination “does have implications for Korea,” Yonsei University assistant professor John Delury said. “I would say he is a great choice for Korea because he has been engaged on this issue in the Senate and he is not ideological, but pragmatic. He seems to care about the issue and about long-term solutions.”

In light of Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear tests, the Obama administration has maintained an approach based on sanctions and intense coordination with Seoul and Tokyo. Some observers believe that the Kim Jong-un regime’s successful firing this month of its multistage Unha-3 rocket, a major step towards long-range nuclear weapons capabilities, has increased its leverage in relation to Washington.

Kerry, 69, who lost a close presidential election to George W. Bush in 2004, is seen as being well seasoned in world affairs and diplomacy and is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is a decorated veteran of the Vietnam War and has served as an unofficial envoy for Obama to various hotspots around the world. During his presidential campaign, he said he was open to bilateral talks with the North.

In an Op-Ed in the Los Angeles Times last year on the anniversary of the 1950-53 Korean War, Kerry tied the loss of 33,000 American and 100,000 Chinese soldiers as well as 2 million Koreans in the conflict to the need to seek the “goal of building a lasting peace.”

“The U.S. response to all this has been measured but firm. It has also been inadequate,” he said, calling for resuming recovery operations in North Korea of U.S. soldiers still missing from the war and the resumption of humanitarian aid to children. “If we give Pyongyang a stake in improving its behavior, we increase the odds that our nuclear engagement will be successful in the coming years.”

Washington in February struck a deal with Pyongyang to provide food aid in return for a freeze of its nuclear and missile programs. But the Kim Jong-un broke the deal with a failed rocket launch in April, a move analysts said the young leader may have been forced to do in order to please his powerful military. Kerry said the more recent launch would only deepen the regime’s isolation.

If Kerry continues to advocate engagement, he may do so at a time when the appetite for such activity is low, given the broken deal. But the inauguration of the Park Geun-hye administration in February may provide him a window as Park has taken a moderate stance on Pyongyang to distance herself from President Lee Myung-bak.

Kerry is said to have impressed Obama while helping him prepare for candidates’ debates against Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Delury said that while Kerry’s stature might garner a level of respect in the North, having the President’s ear was more important.

“For Pyongyang, as for anywhere, the key is whether you are dealing with a channel that has sway with the President. That’s what they will be sniffing out,” he said.

Hillary Clinton, the current Secretary of State, has indicated she will step down early next year. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>