‘More senior NK leaders to fall’

Kim Jong-un

One year after the announcement of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Dec. 19, 2011, his son and successor Kim Jong-un appears to have overseen a relatively smooth transition of power.

But analysts say tricky moves such as replacing more senior figures and smoothing relations with regional players will test the new leader before he sees the kind of power his father exerted.

Pyongyang has been observing the death of the late Kim this week, giving the regime the opportunity to herald the power of his son, the new leader, who scored a major propaganda victory last week with the successful launching of a long-range rocket.

Analysts said that the move has helped consolidate the 29-year-old’s grip over the military and increase his international bargaining leverage but that he still has a way to go.

“Kim Jong-un’s political power is still in the making,” Korea Institute of National Unification analyst Park Young-ho said. “While his leadership has turned out to be successful to some extent by launching the long-range rocket, he is still in the process of consolidating his power, particularly over the military.”

Kim has sought to purge party, government and military officials to tighten his grip, including demoting top military officers who escorted his father’s hearse and were seen as among his closest aides.

He has also stripped the military of its lucrative economic responsibilities and passed them to the Cabinet, sparking speculation that he is seeking to create a more balanced party-military relationship.

Nautilus Institute senior associate Alexandre Mansourov said North Korean politics has become “dynamically stable” during the transition period. But he added that Kim’s overhaul of his father’s system will not be complete without further personnel changes.

“Senior state and government leaders may be next in line for replacement, possibly in the coming year,” Mansourov said in an entry on North Korea-focused website 38 North. He pointed to nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam and Vice Chairmen of the Supreme People’s Assembly Choe Tae-pok and Yang Hyong-sop, all in their 80s, as figures who could be demoted.

Watchers say Kim has leaned heavily on his powerful aunt Kim Kyong-hui and uncle Jang Song-thaek this year. But with the aunt reportedly not in good health and Jang’s power growing unchecked, these relationships could change as well.
Kim will use Jang “for as long as he has to, but Kim surely will cut him off, probably without regret,” Mansourov, citing a precedent set by Kim Jong-il.

Meeting pledges for economic development also looms as a challenge.

The Swiss-educated leader, on the day of his father’s death, reportedly ordered officials to begin devising new economic measures and later told his people pledged to improve the standard of living. Rumors circulated over the summer that Kim had passed down instructions regarding agricultural reform to boost output through incentives.

Sweeping changes have yet to be observed, however, prompting speculation that Kim may be hampered by a severe lack of seed money.

“Kim Jong-un has been attempting economic reforms and opening up but such attempts haven’t seen any big developments,” Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute said.

“If he wants to succeed in such a task, it is essential for him to improve relations with surrounding nations, especially with America and Korea. He needs to build up cooperative relations with the new South Korean administration.”

Such a task becomes more difficult in the wake of the Unha-3 launch, which was seen as a long-range missile test that breaches U.N. resolutions, and the threat of a possible third nuclear test by the regime.

Still, both leading presidential candidates say they are willing to engage the North
and analysts say Washington is likely to keep the door open for dialogue in a bid to cap the growth of Pyongyang’s weapons threat. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>