Is Ahn Perot or Nader?

The death of one opportunity often leads to the birth of another. When a person goes through such a process, it usually leads to transformation.

This happened on Monday to Ahn Cheol-soo, former independent presidential candidate.

It was captured in a speech he made during a ceremony to mark the disbandment of his campaign team.

Some liberal voters or those like me who seek more dynamism in the elections that come every five years hoped against hope that Ahn would make a teary appeal to persuade his supporters to back Moon Jae-in, the candidate of the opposition Democratic United Party (DUP).

He didn’t. The software millionaire referred to Moon, who had previously sought to unify candidacies with him, only once by name.

Rather, he talked about his unfulfilled political dream in the face of the political establishment, criticizing both Moon and Park Geun-hye, the candidate of the ruling Saenuri Party, for perpetuating the status quo by engaging in negative campaigning.

Wearing an open collared shirt without a tie, he appeared to be more in his element, stressing that now is a new starting point, not the end of the road.

By and large, it was not hard to fathom that he was not in the mood to give up and deliver his support to his former rival.

Moreover, his speech was closer to his original declaration of political independence, now regained after a brief period of time when he was under pressure to join the political mainstream. He did his part in trying to accommodate calls from liberals to join forces with Moon in order to thwart the conservatives remaining in power.

So what does all this mean? Let’s examine it from two viewpoints.

On a practical level, it appears to be important to see how Ahn’s lack of a strong endorsement is affecting Moon’s standing.

The DUP tried not to show disappointment.

Moon’s campaign officials thanked Ahn for his support but couldn’t properly explain why he lacked the enthusiasm needed to jumpstart Moon’s sagging popularity.

By the way things stood before the first televised debate, when this column was written, some opinion polls showed Moon trailing Park outside any margin of error.

Right after Ahn’s Nov. 23 announcement to quit the race, Moon’s popularity gradually gained strength to make his fight with Park a tossup. As Ahn kept a low profile, Moon’s numbers started to slide.

One political commentator said that, after Monday, he wouldn’t blame Moon’s backers for wishing Ahn had stayed in his political cave.

The numbers after Ahn’s speech only reinforced Park’s rise at the cost of Moon’s retreat.

Any politician seeking office is bound to cherish the spirit of Yogi Berra, a legendary New York Yankees player, coach and manager, who famously said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

But unless something very dramatic takes place during the next week or so, the winner of the election appears to be all but decided.

What prevented Ahn from giving Moon a ringing endorsement?

Was it due to resentment he felt against Moon for attacking him during the televised debate?

This is quite possible. After all, we remember how Chung Mong-joon broke a united front with Roh Moo-hyun ahead of the 202 presidential elections.

The business tycoon felt offended by how his comedian aide was slighted. However, in hindsight, the occurrence just provided the excuse Chung needed to terminate the uncomfortable alliance with Roh, who went on to become the president.

But was that all that happened to Ahn?

His made his declaration of a presidential bid at a critical juncture. Before this, he was popular but didn’t have to take responsibility for his followers.

Now, he is a politician who is responsible for his supporters.

Among them are not only ordinary voters tired of politics as we know it and who are eager for change but also aides and lieutenants, many of whom have given up their way of life and thrown in their lot with Ahn.

During his campaign, he met a large number of people who treated him like a rock-star, and asked him to be their messiah. It would be very hard to turn away from the pleas of the masses.

But it was like tasting forbidden fruit. The moment he bit into it, it meant a loss of innocence and crossing a point of no return.

When Ahn stood before the nation on Monday, it confirmed that he had made up his mind to pursue politics as his new career and that there would be no turning back.

This signifies that he is as much a politician as Moon or Park.

As with any politician, Ahn’s goal is to take power. But how big is his chance of becoming president? The answer is small. First of all, he lost his biggest asset of being an anti-establishment figure.

Then, it remains to be seen whether he can marshal liberal partisan forces such as the Democratic United Party (DUP) behind him for the next presidential election. If Moon loses this election, Ahn won’t be free of any ensuing blame game.

Third-party challengers rarely make a big dent on the political establishment. Ross Perot and Ralph Nader are examples.

The Texan billionaire spoilt George H.W. Bush’s re-election bid in 1992 and founded the Reform Party for his 1996 bid, which was less explosive than four years before but was still regarded as an unusually successful third-party outcome. Perot challenged the establishment but fell short of bringing about significant changes. Nader, a consumer activist, made even less impact.

Perhaps we are seeing in Ahn a Ross Perot or a Ralph Nader in the making. <The Korea Times/Oh Young-jin>