Who will be unified opposition candidate?

Korea’s presidential race is now in high gear, as the largest opposition party picked human rights lawyer, Moon Jae-in, 59, as its candidate. Ahn Cheol-soo, 50, founder of anti-virus software company AhnLab, finally declared his bid for the presidency Wednesday as an independent candidate.

For the next two months until the registration date on Nov. 26, the public focus will not be on Park Geun-hye, 60, daughter of the late President Park Chung-hee and the conservative standard bearer of the ruling party, but on who will represent the opposition as the unified candidate.

Moon and Ahn will separately jockey for support in the ratings for the next two months in order to become the unified opposition candidate. Ahn, a businessman and professor, has been ahead of Moon in the polls. However, this does not necessarily mean that Moon will bow to him. After all, Moon is the official nominee of the Democratic United Party, which produced Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun in 1997 and 2002, respectively.

In his acceptance speech Sunday, Moon said he would form a coalition government with Ahn if he wins the election. He indicated that Ahn would be a powerful prime minister for his government. The Ahn-Moon alliance would indeed be a serious challenge to Park, and make the presidential race a close one.

However, Moon’s suggestion is wishful thinking. Ahn has been ahead of him in survey ratings. In addition, polls show that Park would easily win in a two-way race with Moon.

Nevertheless, Moon and Ahn’s unification would be fluid, complex and dynamic. Although either one may concede through negotiations, doing so would not convince their supporters. Thus, there is a strong possibility that opinion polls will be used to determine the final opposition candidate. This lengthy process would be a dilemma for Park as it would steal the limelight from her. This would be the opposition’s strategy.

This time, the opposition appears to believe that a unified candidacy is a must. History has shown that the opposition camp can only win when the candidates are unified. In the 1987 presidential race, two pro-democracy candidates, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam, ran separately. Consequently, Roh Tae-woo, a retired four-star general and one of the 1979 coup leaders, became president. Similarly, in the 1997 race, Kim Dae-jung won on the back of maverick politician Kim Jong-pil. Five years later, liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun also successfully solicited the support of FIFA Vice President Chung Mong-joon, and won the race.

Each of the two candidates has strengths and weaknesses. Moon is probably the closest friend of the late President Roh, whom he met when they were both human rights lawyers under authoritarian leader Chun Doo-hwan in 1982. Moon became the chief of staff and a key presidential advisor under the 2002–2007 Roh administration. He has a relatively clean image, with little evidence that he has abused power and influence for personal gains. After Roh killed himself in 2008, Moon became chairman of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation.

His affiliation with the late Roh is both a pro and a con. On one hand, he can be considered an alter ego of the former President, and thus loyal supporters of the late Roh stand behind him. On the other hand, his current popularity is fragile, as he runs on the liberals’ nostalgia for the late President. He said that he had no ambition of running for the presidency until a year ago. He lacks charisma and decisiveness as a politician.

Although Ahn is a political novice, he has been ahead of Moon in the polls just for his lack of party affiliation. Voters are disillusioned with the protracted political deadlock. They perceive lawmakers as an obstacle rather than facilitators to national development, public happiness and social cohesion.

Ahn has tried to associate himself with Microsoft founder Bill Gates in a subtle, yet calculated political strategy. He has contributed to society through his anti-virus software and by donating a significant portion of his company’s earnings to charity. Furthermore, his unparalleled ability to empathize with the youth is quite sensational and often mythical. The public’s expectations of him are so high that young voters seem to regard him as a miracle maker.

Despite his incomprehensible popularity, Ahn has yet to undergo public scrutiny. Few Koreans know exactly what he wants to do if he becomes president.

The two candidates share some similarities. They both come from the southeastern Gyeongnam-Busan region. They both picked former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933–1945) as their role model, a great communicator who expanded welfare and made America a world superpower. The two have adopted justice as a keyword ― Moon emphasizes fairness and justice as governing principles, while Ahn lists justice, welfare and peace as core national values.

They might campaign for anything but President Lee Myung-bak’s platform ― they emphasize welfare over growth, are less friendly to chaebol, support inter-Korean engagement and seek to demolish the power cartel involving politicians, prosecutors and tycoons. They also want to be great communicators, in contrast to Lee.

Who will become the next president is anybody’s guess now. Voters seldom think who would be the best-performing president; Koreans have so far later derided the presidents they have elected. However, people need to realize that whoever wins the presidency will not be a miracle maker capable of solving the existing Korean diseases ― economic polarization, public clamor for expanded welfare, the highest suicide rate in the OECD and pervasive corruption. Great expectations lead to great disappointments. Thus, Koreans need to pick a president who will disappoint them less. <The Korea Times/Lee Chang-sup>

*Lee Chang-sup is the executive managing director of The Korea Times. Contact him at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr.

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