India and ASEAN

ASEAN is facing the most serious crisis of its existence since its foundation some 45 years ago. Recently, for the first time since its inception, it failed to issue a joint statement on the concluding day of a summit meeting. As a result its plans to become one sprawling economic zone encompassing Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei by 2015 have come under serious threat.

That ASEAN was under pressure had been known for some time now. This became apparent when Cambodia, backed by China, refused to endorse a concluding summit statement whereby an appeal was being made to solve all the regional border disputes via a multilateral institutional framework and to work out joint maritime “codes of conduct” to avoid the growing incidents of naval brinkmanship over certain oil-rich waters which might spill over into full-fledged regional conflict.

China in particular does not seem interested in a multilateral approach to the South China Sea border dispute, and it wanted to make sure ASEAN was not able to work together as one on this issue. Supported by its regional ally Cambodia, China succeeded in breaking up ASEAN unity, thereby playing into intra-ASEAN division.

China has been trying to capture the Southeast Asian region for quite some time now and has recently pumped quite a large amount of economic resources into the area to achieve this end. According to some conservative estimates, China-ASEAN trade, which stood around $231 billion in 2012, might reach as high as $500 billion by 2015, which would make China Asia’s biggest trading partner.

With its growing engagement in the region China is looking for new allies to serve its political and strategic interests. Cambodia seems to fit the bill just fine. According to an estimate by the Council for the Development of Cambodia, Chinese foreign investment in Cambodia had already reached more than $12 billion by 2012.

Cracks in ASEAN unity pose a serious threat to regional security and stability and have worldwide implications. For years ASEAN has acted as a foundation stone and launch pad for all regional groupings such as APEC, the East Asia Summit and ARF. Even the smallest spilt in ASEAN could potentially put the entire ongoing regional integration process into serious question.

India has a serious stake in ASEAN unity, and any damage to it would certainly have major implications for Indian engagement in the region. A stronger relationship with ASEAN is one of the main foreign policy premises for India’s “Look East Policy,’’ and thus any discord or division within the ASEAN body can jeopardize India’s relations with the whole region.

So far India’s response to the emerging crisis has been very low profile and timid. Apart from brief statements, there has been no systematic response from the Indian leadership. It seems the Indian foreign policy establishment has no inkling of the gravity of the situation and the damage it can do to India’s long-term strategic and economic interests in the region. Needs of the hour demand India must understand and play its due role in promoting and strengthening ASEAN unity. For one thing, it has to ensure the region is not intimidated by any outside power, however strong and forceful it might be

Recently India-ASEAN relations had been growing closer at a faster pace than ever before. Trade ties between the two have already crossed the 70 billion mark, and it is expected to reach 100 billion by 2015.

India and ASEAN already have FTA in goods in place, and now talks are on to finalize the ASEAN-India FTA in investments and services. This deal is expected to be signed very soon.

As a further boost to these growing economic ties, the ASEAN secretariat is processing projects worth $70 million to promote better people-to-people ties and also to increase institutional connectivity between India and the ASEAN grouping.

According to some estimates, a 3,200-km trilateral highway linking India, Myanmar and Thailand will become a reality by 2016. A major part of $500 million loan which India has given to Myanmar is expected to be mainly used to fund this project. Recognizing the future importance of physical connectivity between the two regions, talks are also on to build a new India-Myanmar-Laos-Vietnam-Cambodia highway. Apart from this, other high value-ended projects are also being considered by a Land Transport Working Group set up for this special purpose. A four-day India-ASEAN summit to be held in December 2012 in New Delhi is expected to focus particularly on connectivity with ASEAN countries.

Together India and ASEAN constitute 1.8 billion people, of which almost 50 percent constitutes a young population, giving the region a substantial market demand for new products. With complementary capacities and resources, the region is offering big opportunities to cooperate on different fronts between India and ASEAN.

Closer ties between India and ASEAN go back to the early 1990s, with India signing the oral dialogue partner agreement with ASEAN in 1992 and then reaching full dialogue partnership in 1995. The relations got a further boost in 2002 when India and ASEAN organized the first ASEAN-India Summit in 2002 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Since then summit meetings between the two countries have been organized annually.

India and Southeast Asia are by no means new to each other. Traditional and historical ties between the two regions go back thousands of years. That Indian culture has had such a long lasting influence on Southeast Asian culture can be gauged from people‘s daily lives throughout the region. Most of the languages spoken there are linked with Indian culture in one way or another. Today there exist many historical monuments which have very clear and close architectural resemblance with Indian architecture. With these long historical connections and close cultural relations, it is only natural that India and ASEAN are forming closer ties for future growth and prosperity.

Given the extent of Indian engagement in the region it is imperative for India to play a more proactive role in this hour of crisis. Though it cannot match China’s growing economic muscle, it does enjoy a lot of goodwill because of its cultural and religious proximity to the region. With the decline of the U.S. and rise of China, the region is going through a fundamental power shift. In this time of power transition there exists a window of opportunity to strengthen India’s foothold in the region. To do so it has to adopt a practical approach and surmount several formidable challenges, plan strategically and display firm conviction and vision to stay engaged and relevant. <The Korea Times/Lakhvinder Singh>

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