Is North Korea becoming China’s satellite?

Jang Song-thaek, left, powerful uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, shakes hands with Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming during a meeting to discuss the joint development of economic zones, in Beijing, Tuesday. (Photo : AP/Yonhap)

China has struck deals with North Korea this week to develop economic zones and foster investment in the impoverished country. The moves, analysts say, signals Beijing’s full support of fledgling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The promises boost the viability of Kim, who is in his late twenties, but also rekindle fears that Beijing is turning the North into a satellite state ― setting up a challenge for the next South Korean president.

On Tuesday, the China’s commerce ministry said it would “steadily push” the development of two economic zones in the North near their border and encourage investment from major firms. This came during a trip to Beijing by Jang Song-thaek, the powerful uncle of Kim. Jang, a technocrat, is seen as a key figure driving reform.

The moves fall in line with China’s stance that Pyongyang should follow its reform path. Beijing believes economic cooperation decreases chances for instability in the North, a prospect that troubles Chinese leaders.

That message was largely shirked by late ruler Kim Jong-il ― Kim Jong-un’s father ― who maintained a staunch “military-first” posture.

Kim Jong-un, who has stressed economic development, recently sacked his military chief ― paving the way for party bureaucrats to slowly open the economy. During Jang’s visit, Chinese officials reportedly tied provision of massive aid to assurances the money would not be diverted to the military.

“Beijing is sending a message to military generals: We are backing Kim Jong-un,” said Bong Young-shik, senior researcher with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “It is saying that enhancement of living conditions is the best way to ensure the core priorities of North Korean leadership, including regime survival and national security.”

China’s new province?

Cooperation is already well underway in the form of investment and infrastructure projects. Bilateral trade has jumped 28 percent already this year.

The long-term concern, some say, is that Pyongyang may become too dependent and effectively become a fourth province of China’s northeast region known as Manchuria. The impoverished country is rich in minerals and offers cheaper labor.

“I wouldn’t go that far,” said Aidan Foster-Carter, an honorary senior research fellow in modern Korea at Leeds University. “But an obedient satellite: surely that is their goal?”

The North shares a border with Liaoning and Jilin Provinces, which together with Heilongjiang Province comprise Manchuria. China has poured heavy investment into reviving industrial bases there.

China is busy connecting the region with the North. Already Beijing has built a road into Rason, one of the economic zones included in the agreement, giving landlocked Jilin and Heilongjiang access to Rajin, the region’s northern-most ice-free port. It also reportedly struck a deal with the North to bring in thousands of guest workers to Dandong in Liaoning.

China is increasing its imports of minerals from the North, a number that reportedly jumped from some 2.5 million tons in 2008 to 4.8 million tons in 2010. Pyongyang this month announced it would allow a Chinese company to develop three new mines in the country.

“Of course there is the concern of Chinese influence in North Korea being enlarged,” Bong said. “It is inevitable for the next president to announce some kind of engagement. The general public is tired of the hard line policy as well.”

Experts say momentum between the North and the Manchurian provinces would allow Beijing to gradually decrease its involvement there, putting the impetus on local governments.

In the long-term, the cooperation ensures influence in the northern half of the peninsula even if the two Koreas unite, Bong said. China is said to be wary of the United States military presence south of the border.

Under the deal, an economic zone at Hwanggumphyong will become an area for tourism and information technology. The Rason zone will be fashioned into a manufacturing base and logistics hub, Beijing said. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin>

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