2024 US President Election: The Portrait of Divided America

Harris (left), Democratic presidential candidate, and Trump, Republican candidate

The 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign could be described as a paradox: both predictable and unpredictable.

By Lee Jong-eun,
Assistant Professor of Political Science, North Greenville University, U.S.

SEOUL: Similar to recent US elections, this year’s presidential election was predicted to display increasingly polarized American politics. On one end of the spectrum, voters who favor progressive social and economic policies and support U.S. leadership within a “liberal international order” were anticipated to back President Biden’s reelection. Conversely, on the other end, voters who advocate for traditional social values and an “America First” foreign policy were expected to support former President Donald Trump’s attempt to regain the White House for a second term.

The election polls have consistently shown a close race. The two opposing campaigns have engaged in vitriolic rhetoric, each side condemning the other as posing a threat to America. Trump’s campaign has accused the Biden administration of causing America’s decline, while the Biden camp has labeled Trump’s return as a threat to American democracy and the rule of law.

The presidential race has also experienced several unexpected events, causing small yet significant shifts in the tightly contested race. In June, the televised debate between Biden and Trump sparked widespread concern within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s age. Worried that public perception of Biden’s physical frailty might give Trump an advantage, Democrats began vocally advocating for a new candidate to replace Biden.

In July, an assassination attempt on Trump galvanized Republicans to unite behind their candidate. At the Republican National Convention that same month, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, spoke to their energized supporters with the familiar promise to “Make America Great Again.”

Then, another event caused a countervailing shift in the race. Yielding to the requests and pressures from his allies and donors, Biden announced the suspension of his reelection campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the new presidential candidate.

With Biden’s withdrawal, the Democratic Party rallied behind Harris. In August, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, President Biden, former Presidents and First Ladies Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama, along with other prominent party figures and celebrities, warned of the dangers of Trump’s return to the presidency and urged delegates to support Harris in becoming the first African American woman president.

President Biden hugs Vice President Harris after dropping out of the race.

Harris, presenting her campaign as a “New Way Forward,” declared at the convention that America “will not go back” but will instead continue its progress and strengthen its global leadership.

With Democrats’ unity and enthusiasm mostly restored behind Harris’s campaign, the presidential race has returned to its familiar “unpredictability”—a closely contested battle where either candidate could emerge victorious. With two months left before the election, several factors may provide either Trump’s or Harris’s campaign with small but potentially crucial momentum in the final stretch of the race.

The first factor is the presidential debates scheduled for the fall. Unlike the Biden-Trump debate, Harris may succeed in presenting herself as the more youthful and articulate candidate on stage. She might also use her experience as a former prosecutor to confront Trump on his legal issues. However, Trump may be able to force Harris to defend some of Biden’s less popular policy records. Furthermore, it is unclear which candidate’s likability will suffer more from the expected exchanges of aggressive rhetoric during the debates.

The second factor is Biden’s popularity during the remainder of his presidency. While Harris will likely attempt to assert her independence as a presidential candidate, her favorability will still be affected by the public’s opinion of the current Biden administration. If Biden’s approval rating declines in the fall, Harris’s campaign might struggle to find a balance between distancing herself from the president and defending the accomplishments of the administration in which she is serving as vice president.

The third factor is the Israel-Hamas War. The Biden administration’s stance on the conflict was the one issue that exposed divisions within a party intent on projecting unity. In her speech, Harris aimed to reassure both supporters of Israel and Palestine, committing to defend Israel’s security, work toward a ceasefire in Gaza, and support Palestinian self-determination. However, if the conflict intensifies, Harris’s campaign could face greater challenges in keeping her party united, risking the loss of either pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian supporters in a closely contested presidential election.

The fourth factor is the public perception of which candidate better represents “change.” Harris’s campaign’s strategy is to portray Trump’s reelection as a predictable return to his controversial first presidential term, while Harris’s presidency will be the “passing of a baton” to a new generation of leadership.

Trump’s campaign’s strategy is to depict Harris’ presidency as a continuation of the failed leadership of the political establishment, in contrast to Trump’s endeavor to reshape U.S. foreign and domestic policies. Given that polls suggest most Americans believe the country is currently on the “wrong track,” the candidate whose presidency is viewed as a more genuine change could have an advantage among the remaining undecided voters.

Former President Trump seconds after he was shot

Returning to the paradox, the U.S. presidential election outcome will be predictable and unpredictable. It is unpredictable who will ultimately win in what is likely to be a closely contested race. However, it is predictable that the eventual winner will face a divided country, with the defeated electorate remaining adversarial toward the new president. How effectively will the next U.S. president govern a politically divided nation? Assert global leadership when the president’s authority is challenged even at home?

As former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln warned, will “the house divided against itself” eventually fall? Or perhaps the future Trump or Harris presidency might prove that yet another paradox in recent American politics is perhaps sustainable, “Divided We Stand.” That the United States can remain a superpower even amidst its internal divisions and disunity.

Lee Jong-eun