No quick exit by PM Lee as succession plan unravels

PM Lee Hsien Loong

By Ivan Lim
Former AJA President, Contributor to AsiaN

SINGAPORE: The punishing impact of the Covid-19 crisis in Singapore has produced three political surprises, upsetting the smooth political successionplan of the city-state’s ruling party.

One, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, the front runner, dropped out of the race to be Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister.

Two, the next in line, Trade and Industry Minister, Mr. Chan Chun Sing, did not step outto fill the void.

And three, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, pushed back his retirement and continues to rule the roost.

The unravelling of the well-planned leadership transition of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) unfolded at a press conference on April 8.

In a shock announcement, Mr. Heng said that at the age of 60 he would have “too short a runway” if he takes over as Prime Minister from Lee Hsien Loong, who had spoken of calling it a day at age 70 in 2022.

However, in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, he declared he would stay on to see the nation through its recovery. That may take at least two years or longer.

Finance Minister Heng, creditedwith crafting five special budgets to help Singaporeans deal with business disruptions and job losses caused by the pandemic, said:”We need a leader who will not only rebuild Singapore post-COVID-19, but also lead the next phase of our nation-building efforts.

“After careful deliberation and discussions with my family, I have decided to step aside as leader of the 4G (fourth-generation) team, so that a younger leader who will have a longer runway.’’He suffered a stroke in May 2016, but made a quick recovery. Few think his health was a major factor in his quitting the race

Mr. Heng was designated the presumptive successor to PM Lee in November 2018 following his appointment as the PAP First Assistant Secretary General.

A contender for the top job, Trade & Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, was appointed Second Assistant Secretary.

In the event, Mr. Chan, as the next-in-line, did not take over from Mr. Heng. Instead, the field was thrown open for the fourth-generation cohort to rally behind a new leader.

Beside Mr. Chan,50, they are Mr. Lawrence Wong,48, the new Finance Minister, Mr. Ong Ye Kung,50, and Mr. Desmond Lee,45, Minister for National Development.

What went wrong with the PAP’s well-laid succession plan?

In what is seen as damage-control, former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong,80, said hiccups were to be expected in any political succession.

It was the case when the pioneer generation of PAP leaders handed over the reins, he added, without elaboration. Mr. Goh had succeeded founder Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. He in turn handed over the mantle to Lee Hsien Loong, son of the founder Prime Minister.

Defending the PAP’s method of grooming leaders, Mr. Goh said: “I do not believe that good leaders will automatically emerge in a democracy nor that the whims of elections   can guarantee a slate of the best to govern the country. For democracy to work, ours anyway, we must offer the best candidates possible for the people to choose.”

Mr. Goh, who had remained in the Cabinet as Emeritus Senior Minister, also said that contrary to critics’ belief, the PAP was not trying to perpetuate its own rule but to perpetuate good governance, values and institutions.

But political watchers were quick to point out that it is the incumbents who define what is good governance.

They seek to set in motion their own value system and what they believe would work in a very subjective way. In practice, they play the role of king-maker, grooming their own favourites and helping totip the scale in favour of a preferred successor. No capable outsider would make it to the top on his or her own merit under such a favourites framework.

In the current fourth generation succession, the Prime Minister has held up the Lee Kuan Yew template of a combative leader-orator.

Above all, the next leader must be one who can lead the party into contesting and winning the next general elections.

For in politics, winning power is what counts.

Going by this yardstick, columnist Tan Bah Bah of the online Independent Singapore observed that the July 2020 general election was a “referendum on Heng Swee Keat as the anointed next PM and he did not dowell”

Mr. Heng won an unimpressive score of 53 per cent of the votes in the East Coast group contest against a Workers’ Party team.

Overall, the ruling party won 83 out of the 93 seats at stake. It garnered 61.23 per cent of the total vote, aconsiderable slide from 69.9 per cent in the 2015 parliamentary polls.

Never mind that hehad been switched at the last-minute by the party from his stronghold Tampines ward.

And never mind that the trained economist was lauded as “my best private secretary” by founder-Prime Minister Lee.

A wizard with figures, Mr. Heng was found to lack the debating prowess seen as hallmark of a good leader under Singapore’s parliamentary system where the ruling party takes on the Opposition with unfailing gumption to debate and defend its policies.

A dip in his performance became noticeable during a parliament debate in November 2019 when he had to call for a break for consultations in order to respond to a legal challenge on a motion that he had tabled seeking to recuse Workers’ Party secretary general Low Thia Kiang and chairperson Sylvia Lim from handling financial affairs over the alleged mismanagement of the Aljunied-Hougang Town Council.

To be fair, when it comes to debating financial issues, Mr. Heng has shown he could more than hold his own. But his superior’s relook at his parliamentary performance had all but doomed his prospects.

One may ask whether, left to his own devices, the technocratic leadership style of the soft-spoken former Prime Minister-in waiting could have made good in the present context.

One recalls that Mr. Goh ChokTong, 80, was no orator and even characterized as “wooden” by his predecessor Lee Kuan Yew. But the elder statesman had bowed to the wishes of Mr. Goh’s peers in the Cabinet who unanimously endorsed him as the successor Prime Minister.

But the die was cast and we would never know.

Interestingly, Mr. Heng ’sexit was foreseen by political commentator Cheang Kok Min.

In a 2018 Facebook piece, titled The Puppet Show and Realities of Life, he wrote: “The whole process of leadership renewal is about entrenching PM Lee and PAP power.

“The model does not allow for anyone outside the closed circle of elites a chance to play a leadership role in the government.

“PM Lee had said that it is critical for the 4G team to win the support of Singaporeans. In other words, Mr. Heng must garner an overwhelming vote in the coming general elections or else lose the support and confidence of his party colleagues.’’

The government put the cart before the horse, taking away the certainty that Mr. Heng would become Singapore’s fourth prime minister.

Mr. Cheang conceded that the PAP leadership could ensure a peaceful and smooth transfer of power. But this is only because it had forestalled the likelihood of any Young Turk challenging the Old Guard for leadership.

The PAP playbookdoes not casta wide-enough net for new political tale. Instead, the fourth generation(4G) leaders are largely recruited from the civil service and armed forces. The leading contenders vying for the top job arestate scholarship winners-educatedin top universities in the United States and the United Kingdom.

This did not escape the attention of political watchers who said the practice left out talent from the private sector and professions.

Indeed, three of the 4G aspirants – Mr. Chan Chun Sing, 50, Mr. Ong Ye Kung, 50, and Mr. Lawrence Wong, 48- have been closely associated with Prime Minister Lee.  Mr. Chan, an army chief, was a minister in the PM Office, while Mr. Ong and Mr. Wong had been Mr. Lee’s principal private secretaries.

Critic Cheang argued that the system could not throw up new and dynamic politicians who would not be beholden to the incumbent but rise up on their prowess and achievements. According to him, the leadership renewal is all about entrenching the Prime Minister and his party in power.

Interestingly, the PAP renewal does not mean a clean break in leadership. The top incumbents who stood down have traditionally been re-appointed to senior positions in the Cabinet. First Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew became Senior Minister and then Minister Mentor, Mr Goh Chok Tong was appointed Emeritus Senior Minister after passing the baton in 2004 to third-generation successor Lee Hsien Loong, son of Lee Kuan Yew, who died on March 23, 2015 at 91.

Many people would agree the prevalent pandemic has been a factor in pushing back the day of a fourth-generation leader.

Rather than let a newbie take charge and prove his mettle in tackling the crisis, the indefatigable Prime Minister felt compelled to stay on and see the nation through under his watch.

It is debatable whether he is entrenched in the rider’s saddle by design or by circumstance — the emergence of the potent SARS-cov 2 pathogen.