Realm of status quo heading towards change in Pakistan

Imran Khan addressing the masses in Peshawar city (Photo: Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) office page)

Contemplating facts behind low socio-political and economic growth reveals shadows of bad governance anywhere in the world. The same can be considered valid for prevailing conditions in Pakistan as governance has been a pertinent issue behind ever soaring problems faced by the country. A nation with a colossal population of 180 million has a long history of fragile democracy and so-called reforming army quos, but nothing has been able to change particularly regarding development. There are plenty of interconnected problems behind the deteriorating condition, but the foremost problem that is agitating the overall development indicators in Pakistan is illiteracy, which leads to lack of awareness and ultimately results in selection of corrupt and ineligible politicians originating in family and power politics. The masses listen to rhetoric and fake slogans in the name of religion, race, and ethnicity for the sake of development and prosperity, but the status quo remains intact and the politicians enjoy privileges and making money.

Imran Khan, a cricketer-turned-politician, has been doing politics for the last 17 years in Pakistan and now almost at his peak of popularity is also using the rhetoric of “change,” which is apparently no different than that used by many other party leaders in past. In order to believe in his slogans, the question arises whether he is really a sincere leader and adequate for leadership? The answer is yes, he is. A famous quotation reads that action speaks louder than words is quite true for Mr. Khan as he has proved himself a man of high resolve and integrity throughout his professional and political career. But, Mr. Khan becoming the next premier will depend upon many factors and the situation will become clearer with every passing day.

Media has brought tremendous changes in the political scenario in Pakistan, enabling people to ponder more on what is going on around them and to analyze phenomena by themselves. The abundance of time due to unemployment and people’s tendency to discuss politics in almost every gathering also helps. In small towns, a culture has emerged to discuss day to day affairs and politics on tea stalls, community places, and other social gatherings. Politics has become a favorite subject matter of discussion for almost all Pakistani men whether living in a village area or city dwelling. People are so much into politics that sometimes the shopkeepers and restaurant owners have to have a wall hanging with the instructions to abandon political discussion while in the shop or restaurant because it sometimes leads to unpleasant incidents such as quarrels. Such enormous change has changed the thinking of the people and these positively altered thoughts will stand in favor of Imran Khan in the upcoming general elections next month.

In the previous years, a general approach of ruling parties has been a blame game, cashing the profit in their favor. They usually put the blame of their inability to do certain things on different factors such as army quos, dissolution of assemblies before time and the residual effect of the decisions made by the previously ruling party. On the basis of these lame excuses, these parties remained in power alternatively for many years. Now, as both the so-called major parties are both in governance; PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) ruling in the federation and the PMLN (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawa) in the Punjab province, they cannot make excuses of bad governance, which will benefit Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI).

According to the Election Commission of Pakistan and “Panorama of Parliamentary Elections 2008, An Annual Publication of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, 2008,” the overall turnout in the general elections of 2008 was 44% of the registered voters. This enabled the PPP to form a central government with 30.6% of the casted votes. The second leading party was PMLN with 19.6%, which ultimately formed a government in the most populous province of Pakistan. Another factor that was very important in the previous elections was PMLQ (Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid e Azam Group) headed by the former army chief General Musharraf. This group remained second in vote percentage with 23%, but due to a smaller number of seats, it could not become the main party to form government. Now in the upcoming elections, the situation is that the main ruling party PPP has lost its support largely due to inefficiency and the inability to cope with problems, especially related to corruption. The PMLN, the second major ruling party, has also lost its support to a considerable extent due to being unable to uplift the life standards of the people and tackle the menace of corruption. The voters diverted from these two parties will likely vote for PTI.

In Pakistan, the politics is different from province to province. In Punjab, PTI will dent the vote bank of PMLN as many international surveys show PTI emerging as a massive force against PMLN. PTI is also predicted to take over votes previously destined for PMLQ as PMLQ is no more in race. The vote bank of PPP will also be diverted towards PTI due to a few formerly PPP members who have joined PTI such as Shah Mehmood Qureshi. In the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), PTI is already very popular, and will stand hard against the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). In Sindh, a 10 party coalition has already been formed against PPP, which is very likely to make an alliance with PTI if it wins. In Baluchistan province, the situation is also not that much in favor of the previous rulers. In this sense, PTI can collect a huge support of the people who are tired of the traditional political parties.

Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) has a strong support of youth, which is also one of the major reasons Imran khan is so confident about his success. According to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), in the upcoming elections 2013, the total registered voters are 87 million out of which 25 million are young voters between the ages of 18-29. According to a survey by the British Council, 13 million young people are casting their votes for the first time in these elections, which could be a major contribution for Imran Khan. There are a certain number of people in Pakistan who have not showed up to cast their votes so far, making the voter turnout very low in the country in almost every election. It is highly expected for these people to come out and cast their votes in the upcoming election and likely for them to support PTI.

Now-a-days in Pakistan, a good number of print, televised, and social media campaigns are working to create awareness among people to encourage them to cast their votes. These campaigns can be considered a harbinger of change in society. It is a very interesting phenomenon to see many multi-national and national brands advertising to raise awareness to vote and to choose the right person. Although the companies are advertising due to their own interests in the atmosphere of elections, advertisement of their product along with the awareness program could serve as a good amalgamation for their promotional activities, but it is also directly affecting PTI positively as more voters mean more votes for PTI. Many people have acquired a self-assumed status as supporter of PTI and are involved with community mobilization. Many singers, whether he is the singer-turned-religious scholar Junaid Jamshed, or Atta Ullah Esa Khailvi have come forward and are singing different songs from pop to folk music to make the people aware of the fact that “change” is mandatory now.

Out of all these reasons, the turnout is very important for the real “change” to come. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is working along with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to raise awareness among masses to cast their vote and the goal of ECP for these elections, according to the strategic goals of the Election Commission of Pakistan, is a 63% turn out. But, I believe if the turn out remain above 55 % in the upcoming elections,  Imran Khan’s victory is obvious. Although, the people are still trapped in “biradari” (patrilineal community ties) politics, individual benefits and short term thinking, change is on its way with a lot of expectations, which could be a surprise for many Pakistanis as well as for the world.