‘Be with US on China’

This is the fourth in a series of letters by experts to President-elect Park Geun-hye. — ED.

David C. Kang

Dear Madam President-elect,

Your dramatic election as the first female head of state in Northeast Asia is epochal, but it also is emblematic of a larger process of Korea’s globalization, evolution, and increasing confidence about Korea’s place in the world. Although you are linked inextricably to your father Park Chung-hee, you are a different person, taking power at a different time; and your policies will no doubt reflect a Korea vastly different from the one your father ruled forty years ago.

The Korea-U.S. alliance remains important and relations between the two countries are close and stable. However, although both the United States and Korea have similar values, are both democracies, and have advanced economies, they do not have identical interests in the region. In particular, while Americans increasingly view China as a potential threat, South Koreans across the political spectrum see China as a potential threat but also a potential economic opportunity, and there is little Korean appetite for joining a U.S.-led containment strategy against China. It would be wise to avoid a zero-sum choice between either China or the United States, and instead work to find a situation where Korea benefits from rising China’s dynamic economy but also continues to maintain good relations with the United States.

The key element of the Korea-China relationship is economic, and Seoul needs to maintain a focus on commercial relations. South Korean leaders over the past half-century have embraced an enduring strategy by which their own domestic legitimacy and regime survival is fundamentally based on economic performance, not nationalism. Thus, you will need to engage with China on issues in which they share similar goals, such as domestic economic growth, increased bilateral trade and investment flows, and expanded regional institutions to manage economic and social flows across borders. At the same time, you will need to adroitly position Korea to avoid being swept up in the territorial disputes that are increasingly disrupting relations in East Asia.

As for Japan and Korea relations, the two countries would seem to be ideal partners – they are both stable democracies, advanced capitalist economies, and share a U.S. military alliance. However, such cooperation has been difficult to forge due to complications over historical issues such as Japanese colonialism and the comfort women issue, as well as maritime disputes such as Dokdo. Indeed, opinion polls of South Koreans regularly show that more South Koreans dislike Japan than dislike China.

The recent elections in both Japan and Korea have highlighted differences between the two countries: Korea appears to be moving forward with confidence by electing the first woman head of state in Northeast Asia, embracing globalization of business, education, and a multicultural society, and with a dynamic democracy that continues to evolve.

In contrast, Japan appears to be moving backwards, voting overwhelmingly for the LDP that had ruled Japan for five decades, bringing back Shinzo Abe for a second term as Prime Minister, and lacking any clear vision for the future. That is, the medium-term prospects for Korea and Japan are quite different: Korea is moving confidently into a future in which Korean interests and relations are broadening far beyond its traditional emphasis on the United States and Japan, while Japan appears mired in the past, a stable and rich country content to become more and more inward-looking even as the region continues to rapidly transform.

These different trajectories have exacerbated tensions between the two countries. While economic relations between Korea and Japan continue to deepen, genuine trust or stability remains a distant goal. Seoul would be well-advised to manage this relationship from a position of strength and confidence. A position of Korean strength means looking at the big picture with Japan and realizing that long-term trends favor Korea. You can be active, rather than passive, in forging good relations with Japan on economic and regional issues, while managing Japan’s claims about Dokdo or history by under-reacting, rather than over-reacting.

You will lead Korea during a complex and important time. The region continues to shift rapidly, and maintaining positive relations with both China and Japan, as well as with the U.S., will be one of the defining tasks of your presidency. Balancing the range of interests and needs will not be easy, and will require confidence, vision, and wisdom.

David C. Kang is professor of international relations and business at the University of Southern California, where he also directs the Korean Studies Institute. His latest book is East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (2010). <The Korea Times/David C. Kang>