New leaderships to reset NE Asia relations

Park to move cautiously amid regional spats, analysts say

With the election of Park Geun-hye as the next president, South and North Korea, Japan and China have all elevated new leaders in a series of rapid-fire transitions.

Northeast Asia’s political perfect storm is here, and analysts warn the confluence of change could prompt either a diplomatic “reset” in the region or a period of greater tension.

Few could have predicted how precarious the situation would be for Park, who takes office Feb. 25. Ties between Japan and China have deteriorated as have those between Seoul and Tokyo. North Korea is increasingly assertive and has a growing tool box to provoke its neighbors.

Analysts say that Park will have to walk a tightrope of diplomacy in her first year given the more volatile environment than that which met the incumbent Lee Myung-bak administration. Her political acumen is likely to be tested sooner rather than later.

“The new president will face a tougher geo-political landscape,” said Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University who advised liberal contender Moon Jae-in during the presidential campaign. “Leadership with prudence, a sense of balance and new vision is needed.”

“It will be a time of rearrangement in the region,” added Korea University Professor Yoo Ho-yeol. “Given the various challenges, I think Park will have to be cautious and strategic in 2013.”

To some extent, Park and her counterpart represent continuity rather than change: she and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are the offspring of authoritarian leaders in their respective states. Shinzo Abe is returning as Japan’s Prime Minister. China’s incoming leader Xi Jinping is a fixture of the establishment.

Still, there is no shortage of pitfalls.

Kim Jong-un, who will turn 30 next week, is expected to continue asserting himself through long-range rocket launches and nuclear testing, Moon said. Abe Shinzo, the new Prime Minister of Japan, has reaffirmed his conservative stances, pledging to make nationalistic moves certain to upset Koreans.

These add to uncertainty over China’s rapid rise as an economic and military power.

The leaders’ “capacity to be a statesmen is going to be tested very early on,” said Peter Beck, Korea representative of the Asia Foundation in Seoul. They will confront difficult choices between making moves that may help strengthen their political base at home but offend neighbors, or avoid them and face potential vulnerability, he added.

“Given what’s happened in the last year or two there are also reasons for serious deterioration and a spiral downward.”

Park plans to establish a national security “control tower,” which could resemble the National Security Council of the White House, to facilitate coordination between Cheong Wa Dae and the ministries. This comes after the Lee Myung-bak administration was criticized for a botched intelligence sharing pact with Japan that roused public anger.

Testing the North

North Korea remains the most volatile flashpoint in the region and despite pledges by candidates here to resume dialogue, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket on Dec. 12 and is showing signs of a possible third nuclear test.

Still, analysts expect Park to test the North’s willingness to engage, as stagnation in relations could give rise to further provocations.

“Failure to deal with North Korea and to stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula could revive the old specter of cold war confrontation in Korea and Northeast Asia,” said Moon.

The President-elect said she would meet with Kim Jong-un if it would lead to tangible results, and some say her visit to Pyongyang in 2002 as a lawmaker could pave the way for a summit. Such efforts may have to wait as the international community deliberates on if and how to punish Pyongyang for the launch, seen as a test of ballistic missile technology.

The Kim regime is also likely to test Park’s appetite for engagement, though analysts say Seoul may be limited in breaching sensitive topics such as security.

“The North, even on a good day, doesn’t want the South to play a meaningful role in security issues,” Beck said. Pyongyang prefers to discuss matters such as its nuclear weapons program with the United States.

Analysts note that any proactive approach to Pyongyang will have to be coordinated not only with Washington, but with China, which has decided to prop up its isolated neighbor.

Securing China’s support may require Park to clarify her stance on the North, which, like Lee’s, conditions major engagement on a reduction of security tensions.

Tokyo’s nationalist turn

Unlike the outset of the Lee administration, Park will have to deal with rising Sino-Japanese tensions as well as problems in its own relations with Tokyo. Analysts say Japan must be dealt with prudently and with an understanding of the nationalist trend with the island neighbor.

Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party during the election campaign promised to sponsor an event called “Takeshima Day” on Feb. 22, a day that symbolizes Tokyo’s claim over the Seoul-controlled Dokdo Islets. Though Japanese media say Abe has since backed off the pledge, any such move would infuriate South Koreans, who see the claim over Dokdo as a failure to atone for its imperialist past.

Abe has indicated he will nullify a 1993 statement apologizing for Tokyo’s wartime atrocities.

Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, said a sharp right turn would put Seoul in an unenviable position.

“Looking at Korea’s behavioral pattern in the past, when the two major powers are in conflict, Korea has tended to side with China to isolate Japan. Besides, the Japanese economy is in recession, which is another sign for the county to turn more conservative,” Shin said.

Doh See-hwan, a research fellow at the Northeast Asian History Foundation, noted that China’s reaction has been less than welcoming toward the Japanese conservative approach, as it was indicated that Beijing didn’t even send a congratulatory letter to Abe.

Still, the expert said the tough rhetoric was a likely tactic to win the election and that Abe understands that tensions may hamper efforts to shore up the nation’s economy, which has been in 20-year recession since Japan’s property boom. Given his strong election performance, he may not need to appease his right flank, he said.

“It is important to note that Japanese government is aware of the need for cooperation with them as the three nations share many interests including negotiations about trilateral free trade agreement,” Doh said.

On the heels of the new administration launch, Abe called for an increase in the nation’s military spending and maybe a constitutional reform to ease restrictions on the Self Defense Forces.

This implies the new leader wants to expand Japan’s military clout over the region with an excuse of helping its alliance, the United States, to ultimately amend the Constitution, Doh said.

“Japan’s nostalgia for the past glory of military power probably came from the deep sense of loss as the economic powerhouse,” Doh said. “In other words, if the country fails to revitalize the economy, the conservatives will likely further flap their wings.”

Balancing act

Shortly after her election, Park reaffirmed her position to strengthen bilateral ties with Washington during through a phone call with President Barack Obama. But Park may have to walk a tightrope if she plans to simultaneously bolster the strategic partnership with Beijing, the nation’s top trade partner.

Analysts say the Park’s election has raised hopes in Beijing for better bilateral relations, which have been hampered by issues such as China’s poor treatment of South Korean detainees, its repatriation of North Korean defectors and claims to Ieodo.

But simply deepening relations on both sides will not be easy amid competition between the giants is heating up, with Washington bolstering its presence in the region to shape Beijing’s assertiveness as a naval power.

Efforts by Seoul to strike a balance could be constrained not only by “because of the North Korean factor, but also because of economic reasons,” Moon said. “Thus, Seoul should be walking on a tight rope between Beijing and Washington, D.C.”

Yoo of Korea University said once Park’s transition team is fully assembled it would be a critical time to review policies to all the neighbors and map out a long-term vision.

“It is a very important time, these next five years. So I think it is better to make a thorough plan to be maintained during her administration,” he said. <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin, Jung Min-ho>