China’s high-risk plan

China’s dispatch of a marine surveillance plane into the airspace of islands administered by Japan appears to be part of a high-risk plan to create a situation whereby Japan’s claim to effectively control the Senkaku Islands is put in doubt.

Chinese state newspaper the Global Times declared triumphantly, “This marks another important step for China in safeguarding the sovereignty of the islands,” known to China as the Diaoyu Islands.

Japan scrambled F-15 fighter jets in response but by the time they reached the area, the Chinese propeller plane of the State Oceanic Administration had already left.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a protest over “a violation of China’s territorial airspace” by Japanese fighter jets.

The Global Times acknowledged that “An aerial confrontation between China and Japan will have much higher stakes than a standoff of ships between the two… If Tokyo keeps on intercepting Chinese patrol planes, such a confrontation is bound to happen sooner or later.”

The territorial dispute is far from being a bilateral issue. The State Department said the United States had “raised our concerns with the Chinese government directly and made clear that U.S. policy and commitments regarding the Senkaku Islands are longstanding and have not changed.”

Earlier this month, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved an amendment to the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act reiterating that “while the United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, the United States acknowledges the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands. The unilateral actions of a third party will not affect the United States acknowledgement of the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands.”

The United States says that the islands are administered by Japan and hence covered by the two countries’ security treaty.

China’s strategy, it appears, is to challenge Japan’s effective control of the islands. It has been sending patrol ships into adjacent waters for two months and now, it appears, will be patrolling the airspace as well.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, declared that the flight path of the first Chinese plane to overfly the islands was “completely normal.”

“The Diaoyu Islands and affiliated islands are part of China’s inherent territory,” he said. “The Chinese side calls on Japan to halt all entries into water and airspace around the islands.”

While the islands are uninhabited, the sea around them teems with fish and significant oil and gas deposits are believed to lie under the seabed.

The small Chinese plane was sent only to make a political point: that China can, whenever it wishes, intrude into Japan’s claimed waters and airspace in the disputed region.

And when Japan scrambled F-15 fighter jets, China’s official media accused Japan of “provocation.”

China’s practice has been to match every move made by Japan and, now that F-15 jets have become involved, Beijing may feel justified to send its own fighter jets into the area.

With ships and aircraft of the two countries deployed, the chances of a confrontation will greatly increase.

The Chinese plane reaped a propaganda bonanza. Color photos of the islands taken by the plane were published in Chinese newspapers, as though exhibiting a trophy.

“It marks the beginning of China’s air surveillance of the Diaoyu Islands,” the Global Times said. “It is necessary to speed up this action and make the patrol a regular move.”

The situation, the paper said, has changed. “It has become normal for China’s marine surveillance vessels to enter the 12-nautical-mile zone. Japan’s ‘actual control’ over the islands has gone.”

“A new reality has been formed surrounding the Diaoyu conflict,” the Global Times said. “It is impossible to turn back. Japan has to accept it with rationality.”

China’s goal at this stage, it appears, is to force Japan to accept some kind of “joint administration” of the islands. Of course, Japan’s acceptance of such a “new reality” would mean an acknowledgement that it no longer exercises effective control over the islands.

From China’s perspective, that will mean that the United States will lose its rationale of defending the islands under its security treaty with Japan since they will no longer be under Japanese administration.

In the long run China’s goal is to drive a wedge between Japan and the United States. China regards the United States as an external power and one that should not interpose itself between China and other countries in Asia.

The new government of Shinzo Abe in Japan will have a difficult job revitalizing the country, strengthening the American alliance and managing relations with China, including the territorial dispute.

Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator based in Hong Kong. Email the writer at frank.ching@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @FrankChing1. <The Korea Times/Frank Ching>