Contain or engage NK leader?

Park cautious; Moon forthcoming

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

When late President Kim Dae-jung stepped off his plane in North Korea in 2000, he was serenaded by a brass band before clasping hands with late dictator Kim Jong-il. His successor, the late Roh Moo-hyun, strode across the military demarcation line on foot seven years later.

Should either of the leading presidential candidates, Park Geun-hye or Moon Jae-in, follow through on their expressed willingness to hold a third summit, the scene would be vastly different.

The President would shake hands not with Kim Jong-il, but his son Kim Jong-un. Pyongyang looks more modern after the regime poured resources into renovations. The young leader’s wife, the fashionable Ri Sol-ju, might make an appearance.

The prospect underscores possible changes in South-North relations under the new administration, as incumbent Lee Myung-bak’s declining popularity has pushed the national dialogue back toward engaging Pyongyang after five years of tense relations.

Aside from the willingness to meet the North Korean leader, however, the candidates’ approaches vary greatly, putting a stark choice before the nation.
Watchers say that Democrat Moon will reprise the country’s Sunshine Policy of proactive engagement, while conservative Park will make adjustments to Lee’s conditional approach.

North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade to mark 100 years since the birth of the country's founder Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang on April 15. North Korea has announced it will attempt to launch another long-range rocket in mid-December. Both camps have condemened the plan, but its impact on the election remains to be seen. / Korea Times file

“Park is a step forward (from Lee) in the direction that is conducive to initial dialogue as a way of testing the North’s true intentions,” said Bong Young-shik, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Moon’s approach “would put Lee Myung-bak’s policy on its head.”

The two will be pushed to clarify their plans following the North’s announcement last week that it will fire off a long-range rocket in defiance of the international community, sometime this month.

The platforms are shaped by past precedent. Accusing Lee of passivity, Moon says he will return to the unconditional engagement policy conceived by Kim Dae-jung and carried on by Roh, which uses economic and cultural engagement to open channels to touch security issues.

“It uses the full menu of engagement,” explained John Delury, assistant professor of international relations at Yonsei University. “South Korea takes the initiative in the relationship. You don’t wait for Washington, nor do you sit by while China blazes forward” to deepen cooperation with Pyongyang.

The approach remains controversial, as critics say it bought time for the North to advance its nuclear weapons program and failed to broach the subject of North Korea’s human rights abuses. Proponents argue the policy was cut short by a conflicting U.S. policy under George W. Bush.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un greets officials of the Ministry of State Security during a visit on the anniversary of the ministry’s founding in this photo released by the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 21. / Yonhap

Park, meanwhile, has to distance herself from Lee of the same Saenuri Party. While Lee offered the North massive development assistance, he conditioned it on Pyongyang following through on denuclearization.

Park argues neither unconditional engagement nor a tough line has compelled the North to change. Her “trustpolitik” approach calls for building confidence by encouraging dialogue and for “assuming a tough line against North Korea sometimes and a flexible policy open to negotiations at others.”

But watchers say the approach, like Lee’s, is conditional, hinging on Seoul’s ability to “first demonstrate” a robust deterrence posture and establish that the North “will pay a heavy price for its military and nuclear threats.”

“It’s still a conditional approach, but the conditions will be more flexible,” Korea University professor Yoo Ho-yeol said. “That’s why she emphasizes confidence-building and that denuclearization is not a precondition for dialogue.”

Breaking the ice

If elected, Moon says he will begin working for an inter-Korean summit immediately, consulting with Washington and Beijing, in a bid to meet the leader sometime next year.

He would invite a delegation from Pyongyang to attend his inauguration as a preliminary move.

Park is willing to meet the young leader if it is clear it would help advance relations.

“Moon Jae-in may be more eager to have dialogue. He would offer more reconciliatory gestures,” Choi Jin-wook of the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU). “But they are both serious about dialogue.”

The Saenuri candidate proposes that the two Koreas build “cooperation centers” in each other’s capital to build up trust on the Korean Peninsula.

On humanitarian aid, she says large-scale aid depends on the North’s denuclearization steps but would approve smaller packages targeting infants and children while working for more transparency to ensure that deliveries reach the needy. “The goal is to reach a balance between hard-line and overly dovish stances,” she said.

Both would work to resume reunions of separated families separated by the Korean War after only two sessions were held under Lee. Park says she would hold regular reunions and conduct investigations on the status of separated family members.
Moon proposes keeping permanent representative from each Korea at the reunion center in the North and pushing to make reunions possible “at all times.”

Delury said previous engagement activities such as family reunions and civil society engagement on aid are relatively easy to resume and could potentially be “ramped up” quickly.

Economic cooperation

Amid concern over Beijing’s growing influence in the resource-rich North, both candidates are talking big over possible economic projects. Moon says he will open a “South-North Economic Union” based on agreements agreed upon during the previous summits.

He would work to form a joint committee on economic cooperation to ensure free and secure investment and economic activity and forge an ‘Inter-Korean Comprehensive Economic Agreement’ to internationally recognize duty-free trade and protection of investment between the sides.

He says “endless opportunities” can be forged in his term. Among these he proposes a joint economic area on the East Coast linking cities from Busan through North Korea’s eastern special economic zone of Rason and on to China and Russia.
On the West Coast, he envisions an “eco-friendly international tourist zone” which connecting Mount Seorak, Pyeongchang, the Demilitarized Zone, and Mount Geumgang in North Korea.

The liberal vows to resume joint tours to Mt. Geumgang in the North, which has been halted since the 2008 shooting death of a South Korean tourist and expand the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

As part of her trust-building process, Park proposes a “Vision Korean” project to transform the Gaeseong complex into an international manufacturing center. She also North Korea build up its economic infrastructure, which can lay the foundation for a Korean economic co-prosperity community.

The conservative prefers cooperation that enhances the lives of people in North Korea areas such as healthcare, agriculture, forestation and climate change, but also suggests helping the North attract foreign investment, joining international financial institutes and develop infrastructure.

On the human rights in the North, the candidates follow their party lines, with the conservative being more vocal on the issue.

The Saenuri candidate vows to push through legislation on North Korean human rights while bolstering support for North Korean defectors as well as cooperation with international organizations attempting to improve conditions.

The rights abuses put liberals in a bind as touching the issue can be a hurdle to initiating engagement. Moon, however, has called for the immediate resolution of the issues of South Koreans abducted by the North since the 1950-53 Korean War.

North’s response

It takes two to tango, of course, and analysts point out that Pyongyang appears to be calibrating its stance towards the South as well. The announcement of the rocket launch, which is seen as cover for a missile test, suggests that Pyongyang is still working to build support among its own populace.

“They might evaluate the positions of Moon and Park, but for North Korean authorities, both could be a possible ‘partner’ to deal with because they both offer some positive stances,” KINU analyst Park Young-ho said. “But first and foremost, they have to show to their own population that they are entering a new era.”

Despite its announcement of the rocket launch, the North has relented on its rhetoric against Park ― who met the late Kim Jong-il in 2002 ― suggesting it is readying for the possibility of engaging with a new conservative administration.

Watchers also note that any engagement would need coordination with key ally Washington as well as Beijing.

“South Koreans are concerned about security; they want to ease the tensions,” analyst Choi said.

“The candidates are trying to get votes by responding to the demands but when they get to office, they will have to consider other variables. But I think they are serious about talks.” <The Korea Times/Kim Young-jin, Kim Se-jeong>