Xi’s policy toward Korea remains to be seen

Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, left, waves with new member of the Politburo Standing Committee Li Keqiang, the presumptive premier and chief economic official, in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Nov. 15. Xi became China’s new leader, assuming the top post of the Communist Party and the country’s powerful military. / Yonhap

Experts here forecast the new Chinese leadership, with Xi Jinping elected new general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, will maintain the previous policy of seeking peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, while exerting efforts to induce North Korea to denounce its nuclear program and to embrace economic reform.

“No big change is expected in China’s policy towards the Korean Peninsula,” said Shin Jung-seung, director of the Chinese Studies Center at the Korean National Diplomacy Academy.

Won Dong-wook, a professor of China studies at Dong-A University in Busan, echoed this.

“It is a widely-accepted view that the big framework of China’s policy regarding the two Koreas will not change due to a series of stark domestic challenges awaiting the new leadership,” said Won.

Behind its remarkable economic growth over the past decade, China is experiencing serious domestic problems such as a worsening rich-poor gap, political corruption and environmental problems. Among other issues, Chinese people’s fast growing desire for better living conditions could impose a threat to the CPC, the political party that single-handedly rules the country, if its targets are not met.

China set a goal of building a moderately well-off society by 2020 and plans to double its gross domestic product by then.

“Ninety-five percent of pending issues that the Chinese leadership is concerned of comes from inside. Out of the remaining 5 percent, 4 percent is spent in dealing with big powers like the United States and Russia. And the last 1 percent is for surrounding nations like the two Koreas,” said Shin. “So who becomes the new leader doesn’t really matter. China’s policy towards the two Koreas will stay same.”

He said domestic issues have become an increasing matter of concern for China’s leaders as its citizens have more access to information than ever before.

“Chinese people are starting to express their thoughts more freely after being equipped with information technology devices,” said Shin. “Five hundred million Chinese now have access to the Internet and there are 1 billion who use cell phones. The leaders have no other choice but to reflect public sentiment in their policies, especially for societal problems.”

Experts also pointed out that Chinese politics is no longer a “one-man show” like the old days where a leader’s personality and characteristics could make their way into materialized policies.

“China is now in a collective leadership system with different factions with their own interests,” said Won.

However, the professor warned there could be a situation where the Chinese leadership takes a stronger stance on overseas issues, including policies on the Korean Peninsula.

“If the rivalry between the United States and China intensifies surrounding the Korean Peninsula, China will side with North Korea, taking a more aggressive and offensive stance to check and balance the U.S. shift to Asia,” said Won. “Then China will use its economic means such as the ongoing free trade agreement talks to press South Korea to side with it.”

“In light of such a perspective, it is likely that China will shape its North Korea policy more delicately in the Xi Jinping era.”

Shin also cautioned that nationalistic public sentiment in China could lead to stronger diplomacy by the new leadership.

“Ordinary Chinese people remember the Western invasion of China during the 19th century and it hurt their pride as a big nation,” said Shin. “Chinese have the desire to become a superpower again, and they will react strongly to incidents that remind them of their humiliating past. The territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China) is a good example. The Chinese leadership will have to react to it by boosting military power and taking on a stronger diplomatic stance.” <The Korea Times/Chung Min-uck>