[India Report] Drier monsoon causes draught in India

(Photo : Google)

Cloudy skies but little rain seems to be the fate of India this time and the scarcity of rainfall is likely to cause drought in India. Though the meteorological department’s long range forecast for the 2012 rainfall was that it will be a normal pour this time with 99% rainfall, but the present weather condition is far against it.

A report of independent research house CRISIL Research has said that the current monsoon situation in the country is similar to the drought of 2009 and in the case of the impact of the deficiency of rainfall on certain kinds of crop, it is even worse than that of 2009. The monsoon lost momentum last week, falling 22% short of averages and raising the risk of a drought year. This can be avoided only if the country gets 33% excess rain in August which makes up for the shortfall but this is unlikely.

India’s government raised the possibility of a drought for the first time this year and said on Thursday that ministers would meet next week to discuss the lack of monsoon rains, which define output for the major consumer and producer of food crops. It will be the first time the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) has met on drought since 2009, which saw the driest monsoon in nearly four decades in Asia’s third-largest economy, where more than half of arable land is rain-fed. The meeting could be around August 1, said V Narayanasamy, a junior minister in the prime minister’s office, adding the government would review the situation after 15 days as reported by the Business Standard.

(Photo : The Economic Times)

Monsoon rains are crucial for farm output as the showers irrigate 55 percent of India’s farmlands. The four-month season accounts for 75 percent of the country’s annual rainfall and half of that is usually delivered in June and July.

This year in June and July the area remained dry. The poor rains have slowed the speed of planting crops such as rice, cereals, pulses and oilseeds including soybean. Paddy sowing is 10% below normal and most of it is a late-sown variety that gives fewer yields.

The crop will be in danger in September if there is an extended dry spell. Cotton acreage has fallen more than expected, especially in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The government is taking emergency steps in some areas under contingency plans which would provide for supplies of high-yielding seed varieties, ensure fodder availability and increased power supplies in some areas.

It is feared that the poor rainfall would result in a remarkable downfall in the agricultural field and will surely hit the Indian economy. New Delhi is already battling to contain double-digit food inflation, now faces further price increases due to food shortages for its 1.2 billion people, some 42 percent of whom live in poverty.

Food Minister K.V. Thomas said the poor rains could cut output of pulses and oilseeds and that could mean India, already the world’s largest importer of lentils and edible oils, has to buy more from overseas suppliers. Saurashtra, Kutch, and Diu of Gujarat are under severe meteorological drought conditions, according to IMD definition.

The subdivision of west Rajasthan is under severe drought with around 60 percent deficient rainfall. Coarse cereals such as jowar and bajra in Rajasthan are expected to be worst hit as there is significant lack of irrigation. Apart from coarse cereals, soybean is also among the badly hit crops in the state due to lack of rainfall.

There is over 30% deficiency in rainfall in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada subdivisions of the state. The worst affected crops are soybean, tur, cotton, bajra, and jowar since they are largely un-irrigated. As of July 18, 2012, the south interior subdivision of Karnataka is in severe drought (-50 per cent deficient rainfall) and north interior and coastal Karnataka subdivisions are in moderate drought condition (-37 percent and -20 percent deficient rainfall). The worst impacted crops are pulses such as tur, coarse grains such as jowar and bajra, and oilseeds such as soybean, groundnut, and cotton.

R S Sharma, senior agricultural-scientist, Agriculture Policy Research Institute said that, “Now sowing has reached a crucial stage with sowing window nearing end for almost all the crops. Rains at this juncture are important for fresh sowing and also for the survival of crops already sown. If it doesn’t rains in the coming week, there will be huge crop loss”.

India is left with the hope of improvement of rainfall in rest two months of the season but some huge rainfalls in the northern hilly region of India has spared this year from being a mega drought year unlike the years 2002 and 2009.

Sudhanya Ghosh Intern Reporter news@theasian.asia